AD better deep ball than u think

[Shake n Blake]

(04-08-2018, 03:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: 1. I never said other QB's aren't getting bailed out, I said not as often as Dalton.  2. AJ is the best wide receiver at adjusting to badly thrown balls. If you don't believe that then you aren't watching the game closely. Provide a stat showing who is the best at adjusting to badly thrown deep balls.  I would bet anything that AJ is the best in the nfl at adjusting to bad balls. 

3. I have also asserted that AJ gets the most separation on deep balls,  and the more separation means an easier ball to complete.   Do you have a stat to show which receivers get the most separation on deep balls? Of course you don't, so without those details your numbers are not showing enough to prove that your stats are valid. 

4.  That is what is meant by manipulating numbers, without those details the numbers mean very little. 

5.  Pdub provided detailed stats from a site, that analysed very carefully the many factors that I have described. They showed Dalton to be a C level QB on deep balls for his whole career.  Now, if I choose a stats over another one, I will obviously choose one that is more detailed, than a stat which doesn't have much detail like the ones you provided. That isn't biased, it is sound logic. 

6. Big Ben throws 37% more deep balls than Dalton, which is quite significant and would indicate a QB who throws into much  tighter windows than Dalton, which would diminish his deep throw stats. As far as Brady is concerned , the only fair stat to show would be when he had a receiver comparable to Green in Moss, and that year he put up much better deep ball numbers than Dalton ever has. 

1. Again, that's your subjective opinion.

2. See #1. I wish they kept track of deep passes that AJ Green had to make an acrobatic catch that no one else could make. I'd imagine it'd be much less than you think. 

3. of course there's no stat for that. It's a subjective opinion. They don't make stats for opinions.


4. Lol come on man. That's not manipulating anything. The numbers are the numbers. You ask for splits that don't exist and then claim without them, the numbers are "manipulative"? This is silly.

5. Pdub's links showed no such thing. The one link that provided grades based on everything was only for one season, not his entire career. It also did not grade Dalton poorly. It graded him as the 16th ranked QB in the 31-40 range and the 5th ranked QB on 40+ yard throws. It graded him terribly on the 21-30 yard throws. 

This all just verifies the base stats that I listed, which show him to be poor on 21-30 yard throws and good on the really deep stuff. Pdub's other link shows nothing. Feel free to tell me exactly what it shows if you feel I'm incorrect.

6. Where are you getting that Ben has thrown 37% more deep throws? 

(04-08-2018, 04:20 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I pulled up his stats on espn and did the calculations.

I did this by adding up his throws over 40 yards and divided by the total years. I did the same for 31 - 40 yards. I also know that Dalton throw approximately three times as many throws between 31 - 40 yards, than over 40 yards.

This gave a QB rating of 90 on throws over 30 yards.Now this isn't far off his career QB rating of 88.  So even on using these stats , which are not very detailed, it shows an average deep ball throwing QB.

1. Of course Dalton throws more 21-30 yarders than 31+. That would go for any QB.

2. Dalton has a 101.7 rating on throws of 31+ yards since he came into the league. This includes 31-40 yard throws AND 41+ yard throws. You are off somewhere in your calculations. 

Anyone who wants to check can see for themselves: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14012/andy-dalton

By year:

2017: 4-22-201-2-0
2016: 10-21-471-3-0
2015: 7-23-326-2-3
2014: 8-19-413-3-1
2013: 10-27-472-5-1
2012: 5-22-243-2-1
2011: 11-24-473-3-2

Totals: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7 rating)

Now where are you pulling this 90 rating from?