AD better deep ball than u think

[wolverine515151]

(04-18-2018, 11:58 AM)PhilHos Wrote: There's no such thing as "garbage" production. There's just production. 

BTW, where are you getting the 3 for 16 stat? Just curious.


The QB rating stat may be flawed, but it's not "horribly" flawed. And, sure, it puts more weight on TDs, but if you think about it, games are decided by which team has the most POINTS, not which one had the most yards or the better completion percentage.

Also, allow me to point out that the creator of the QB rating forumla has stated that it was designed to judge QBs on full seasons worth of stats and not individual games or even stat splits like passes thrown over 40 yards in the air.


No, what it means is that points matter most, but that having a lot of yards and being efficient also play a part in being a "good" QB.


This just isn't true. Green has caught more passes in stride than he has made circus catches on deep passes thrown by Dalton. Green is also not the only WR that Dalton has thrown deep to so we already know that even without Green, Dalton would NOT be Blaine Gabbert on deep throws.

The whole point is that the qb rating allows a throw to made at the 50 yard line for a td and get 158 rating. If the deep throw was made at the 51 yard line, for 50 yards, and the ball is at the 1 yard line, then the qb rating is a 80.  The next play the team scores. 

This means a huge emphasis is made on where the ball is thrown. Of course the whole point is to score points but that shouldn't be part of whether it was a good accurate throw or not .

Green might not be the ONLY wide receiver Dalton throws to, but he catches around 70% of all of the deep throws , so he makes up a LARGE PART of any deep throws Daltons completes. He definitely makes top 5 in most acrobatic catches and probably the most acrobatic catches in the whole league.

I think as a whole the qb rating is ok as far as accuracy, it is when it used for specific throwing lengths, like throws over 30 yards, that it becomes inaccurate and should not be used.

The only fair analysis would be to first calculate completion % for all 32 qb starting in 2011 up until now , then adjust for offensive line ranking. 

Say a qb ranked 12 in completion % on throws over 30 yards, and the offensive line ranked 8 , then the qb ranking should be adjusted backwards by say 8 spots because the offensive line is 8 spots better than average.  The adjusted ranking would be 20 for the qb. This at least takes out any bias of the qb having a better offensive line than other qb's. 

I would make the same adjustment for receivers the qb has to throw the ball to, then add up all the rankings and get an average ranking for the qb.