AD better deep ball than u think

[wolverine515151]

(04-25-2018, 11:53 AM)PhilHos Wrote: More detailed, sure. More subjective, definitely, which makes it MORE flawed.

Also the NFL QB rating places NO emphasis on where the ball was thrown.


Having "windows" is the very definition of subjectivity. Having windows makes it a LOT more subjective than the QB rating formula. You're putting more weight on a more flawed formula and shitting on a less flawed formula. 


If you're  using brickwallblitz's formula, you absolutely are NOT using the less flawed one.

If it is subjective it isn't as blatant as you are making it look. Each throw is judged by how open a receiver is.  This is broken into several categories  of how open they are such as, wide open, very open open, open, slightly open,  blanketed. 

It isn't like the guy is judging whether a player is open or not hes merely judging where he fits into these categories. The only subjectivity would be to determine the difference between say slightly open to blanketed, not as blatantly subjective like whether he is open or not open. It is much more fine tuned than that primitive approach you are suggesting.

It isn't as subjective as the qb rating, which allows a qb to complete only 18% of his throws and score over a 100 rating. That is much more flawed and no way can you say a 18% completion percentage is a very effective qb on deep throws just because he throws a couple td's. 

Lets set up an example to show you how the qb rating does not show how effective a qb rating is. Lets assume a team drives the ball 8 times a game. Lets assume that on every third down at midfield the qb launches a deep throw.

Now Dalton completed 3 out of 16 deep throws and scored a 106 rating. That means, in two games , if he launched a deep throw at midfield, on third down, in two games, it would have scored say 2 tds and a field goal. That's 17 points or 8.5 points per game. So how effective is that 106 rating now when it only results in 8.5 points per game.

The rating would be 106 yet its effectiveness produced 8.5 points per game in the two games. So the fact is this qb rating is not good for showing how EFFECTIVE the qb is on deep throws. Using that deep ball strategy it EFFECTIVELY would have lost us the games.