AD better deep ball than u think

[wolverine515151]

(04-24-2018, 10:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't see how that's not fair. A 51 yard TD is better than a 50 yard completion, and the difference between 158 and 119 seems like a fair difference.

Either way, this argument (of Wolverine's) loses merit when I was using 7 seasons worth of data and over 150 attempts. The QB rating formula can look a little whacky when you use it for one play, but it all evens out when you're looking at so many attempts.

How do you know it evens out, there is no proof of it evening out, some qb's could have a tendency to launch it deep near field more than others and therefor much more likely to score a td on a deep ball. 

The fact is only about 5% of a qb's throw are over 30 yards , which equates to about 20 throws a season for Dalton. Even 7 seasons worth of Daltons deep throws is 140 throws, which is about a quarter of a season worth of throws.

Even when assuming qb's all have a tenancy to launch a deep throw from the same part of the field on average, which hasn't been proven to be true one way or the other, in statistics things don't even out until you have much more data than that.

It also still doesn't take into account whether the td was scored because the wide receiver made a nice move after the catch and scored,it doesnt take into account if a bad ball was caught by a spectacular catch, it doesn't take into account how much pressure the qb was facing on the throw, it doesn't take hardly anything into account which is why it shouldn't be used to determine how good a qb is at throwing the deep ball.