The Iran deal

[Dill]

(05-08-2018, 05:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Oh please. Bush supposedly made America look bad to the rest of the world and Obama supposedly repaired our image. Worst case scenario, the rest of the world don't trust Trump but will give the next guy/gal a chance.

Worst case scenario-- Netanyahu celebrates a great foreign policy victory while the Mossad goes on high alert. World wide oil prices rise, the stock market begins a long drop. Fox does segment after segment on the "bold move" which shows "strength" and contrasting Trump to the "weak" Obama.

Israel wants the US to re-impose sanctions on Iraq, but France, Germany--the EU--Russia, and China don't go along. The US wants to punish countries that ignore the sanctions, but finds it cannot punish everyone. The UN is uninterested in passing US resolutions in support of sanctions. International banks resist US efforts to constrict Iranian assets. The US imposes unilateral sanctions which only hurt US business.  Iran is free to pursue nukes and delivery systems. 

Noth Korea now sees leverage. Doubtful that the US has the diplomatic power to orchestrate a serious sanctions regime anymore.  No one in the Far East understands U.S. foreign/trade policy anymore, or how to respond to US initiatives. They begin figuring out ways to protect their markets without the U.S. The TPP, which excludes the US, becomes a very important part of their future.  And China is now by default the regional leader/power.  Japan resigns from the non-proliferation treaty.

Inside the US government, the Democrats, independents, and "establishment" Republicans resort to increasingly desperate responses to Trump damage to foreign policy and the economy amidst Trump's widening personal scandals. Trump spends all day watching Fox and tweeting about scandals and fake news as the international order re-configures away from US interests.  

Iran, now in the driver's seat, could ignore the US and keep the Deal with the EU, Russian and China. But in a worst case scenario it is angry, the "liberals" and moderates in Iran who risked their careers on the deal are now fully discredited and the hard liners are in complete control. They set about rebuilding Iran's nuclear program, this time with the goal of building a bomb. Trump fires "Mad Dog" Mattis for supporting the Iran Deal. No more adults left in the WH. The Senate will not confirm Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense so we don't have one as the world unravels.

Saudi Arabia decides it needs a bomb too. In August, Trump gives a speech at the WH saying "who knew" the Iran Deal could have been so complicated.

Israel decides someone needs to "take out" Iran's capability--"Before it's too late." During a compaign speech in a southern state, Trump announces the US will back Israel, taking his own state department and DOD by surprise. That means another war in the Middle East. Doubtful that the US can take out sites buried deep in mountains. That would require ground troops. Where will Russia stand in that conflagration so close to its borders?

By next summer Iran has a bomb. What does Israel do? How much back up does the US provide. How far will Iran go in defending itself?   Impeachment of Trump fails. He blames Obama and the Democrats as the chaos of the White House engulfs the world.