The Iran deal

[Dill]

(05-08-2018, 12:34 PM)hollodero Wrote: Disclaimer, I'm not an expert on the deal, chances are it's a flawed one, I wouldn't dare say.

But if Trump blows it up today, that would be a severe sign to the world that a contract with the US isn't worth negotiating in the first place. It would mean your political parties stand so fundamentally opposed that one can't reach an agreement with the USA, just with one of your parties. With great chances the other party doesn't respect it, based on facts or just based on principle.

I also would expect this a weakening of Trump's position towards North Korea, because what exactly should Kim fancy about any agreement that might not be worth the time and the paper to begin with. Similar goes for other countries like Europe. Trump would severly insult allies and there just can't be any other reaction as regarding the US as an unreliable player that can no longer be trusted. (The Kurds tell us that for a long time now.) I don't want to overstate things, but I can't see any other reaction.

I'm certain the US can still bully through and be fine, but nevertheless I believe the US would weaken itself for the foreseeable future on the world stage. It would also make the world less safe. For starters, I can't imagine Iran not trying to get the bomb as soon as possible after that one, other countries probably following that path.

In ascending order--it's not clear to me that Iran REALLY wants a bomb. They could have had one by 2005 and then again by 2013, but did not go that direction.  They maintain they have a RIGHT to make one, apparently (and understandably) out of national pride. Breaking the deal, though, has given impetus to the hard liners who wanted the bomb but were held back.

Right now, it is still in Iran's best interest to continue the deal with Russia, China, and the EU reps.  That is made more difficult by Trump's insistence that we will slap sanctions on disobedient European countries if they don't do what we say and re-impose the the sanctions we decide (right now, just "secondary" ones).

This is a very unstable situation since slapping sanctions or France or Germany or other EU countries is not quite as easy as bullying 3rd world states.  Trump et al. seem to imagine individual countries unable to stand up to the US for fear of losing our markets. But Europeans may be thinking that collectively they very well can do that. Or at least that it is worth the risk.  Europeans may be "weak" and not know how to bully any more, but they are smart and know that attempting to push Europe around will produce blowback in the US and European solidarity. They know that Trump is partially manipulable.  Feed Fox the right information. Get it past the gatekeepers--that is the hard part.

So many openings for Putin here as well. He, not NK, is the first great benefactor of Trump's blunder. If breaking apart NATO and disrupting the EU is your goal, then Trump is worth 10 atomic bombs. And Iran is a multi-billion dollar market. (And Dino just posted a tweet of a Russian response to the expected rise in world oil prices.)

The weakness in EU solidarity might be that Trump is now able to selectively NOT impose sanctions on individual countries and their business entities provided they fill up the suites in Trump tower to lobby for access and exemption. Deals everywhere.

Rather than view busting the Iran Deal as weakening Trump's position (whatever that could be) think of it as strengthening Kim's.  Including China and SK on any US deal, or at least in the process, holds forth two "trustworthy" partners who have earned more deference and are less belligerent. Playing Trump, Kim can speak of "permanent" solutions and hold forth a BIGGER deal than the Iran.  Despite all the bluff, it is not clear to me at all that Trump would "walk away" from a weak deal, if just having a deal can be spun as something no other president was able to do. Trump's supporters do not follow policy details. They follow rhetoric. If the Iran deal was "one-sided" and the "worst ever," then whatever Trump brings back from NK will be the "best ever" and "hardline, that I can tell you."  Pundits who critique factual details can be dismissed by non-readers as "haters."

Still, I think Trump's chances of walking away from such a deal are 60%.

China won't just be a potted plant in the room. On the one hand, their foreign policy horizon is MUCH broader than the US's, and they have a president for life. On the other, they see themselves as a world power and have shown that on some issues (Taiwan) they will absorb tremendous diplomatic hits rather than change a position.  THEY ARE THE KEY to an NK deal based on threat of sanctions, since they exert most control over whatever sanctions are imposed. They will expect concessions for cooperation. They will likely favor reduction of US power in SK, which Trump seems to favor too. (No Trump supporter will see a problem with that.  America first.)  They might be ready to sign a treaty bringing NK under their nuclear umbrella on condition the US leaves the penninsula and Kim really denuclearizes.  But who would trust them to make sure Kim does that? And that would fly in the face of NK juche, which requires total self-reliance.

And as signatories to the Iran Deal, they have just been burned by Trump. After giving up jobs and profits during the sanction years, then trusting US credibility in 2015, now returning to sanctions on Iran would cost them a valuable source of oil and billions in trade again. They might find the EU has their back, though. It is not at all clear how US diplomacy will work on them now, with Trump's one-two punch of threats and no credibility.

A really interesting possibility--After tremendous Trump reality show fanfare the US, China, N and SK sit down to negotiate. It blows up quickly. Trump walks away in storm of threatening tweets and repetitive interviews.  But China and the Koreas remain at the table and work out some deal WITHOUT THE US. Say one which sets NK on a path of normalizing relations between the Koreas, with China as guarantor.  Under any other presidency that would mean tremendous friction between SK and the US.  The US foreign policy establishment would go ballistic.  But I am truly unsure that Trump and supporters would care. How would they see any consequences? In what follows, sanctions become a joke. Russia also borders NK, and what is their incentive for holding to sanctions. At worst Trump would announce more sanctions on Russia without putting them into effect.

Great insight into our division. How CAN you trust us when an election four years from now might trash the agreement you signed today. One party cannot get treaties ratified so all hangs on executive agreements. Back in the 90s, during the Gingrich revolution, I assumed there would be a correction. Party divisions would balance the center. Instead the right just got more extreme. The old radicals--Gingrich, Cocaine Mitch, and Boehner, became "the establishment" challenged by the Tea Party and Freedom Caucus, many of whom are now challenged by the more extreme Trumpsters, who do not learn from political error and little in the way of political memory. "Once-Radicals" Cantor and Ryan gone! Who is next? The center cannot hold.