North Korea threatens to withdraw from summit with Trump

[Dill]

(05-24-2018, 11:51 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: In all seriousness, I've been of the opinion from the start that this summit would either not happen or would be fruitless. Neither Kim nor Trump would approach these negotiations in a way that would be productive. Trump is too much of a zero-sum thinker and Kim is, well, Kim. I truly believe that the reason this summit was canceled by Trump is to maintain the image that he is in control of the situation. It looks better politically for him to walk away then it does for Kim to turn his back on us, and Trump and/or his advisers saw the writing on the wall. Pulling the trigger first reduced the political capital lost with this.

The thing I am going to be waiting on is the DPRK response. There are a lot of different directions I could see them going with this.

Still, Trump seems the loser since he did not follow the usual process, but announced right away that he would meet with Kim.

Now he cancels on what is clearly a pretext.

Trump has a penchant for painting himself into a corner with untimely and ill-considered ultimatums. If Kim decides to test another missile to show NK "Independence," Trump will have rattle his saber VERY LOUDLY in response.  Kim has to rattle back, which will be a "provocation" requiring a "response." Trump has made acting rather than talking his brand. The "not OBama." Hard to walk that back. Impossible to walk it back without losing cred. It is possible that Trump's NSC advisor will push military solutions, and Trump will listen to him over Mattis and Kelly. 

As Yojimbo pointed out, China is an important player here.  I don't see them sitting back while the US stirs up the NK. If I'm China, I can't allow NK to be nuked.  And I may side with it in case of a land invasion as well--like in Oct. 1950.  Russia should also be an important factor, since they too share a border with NK.