Trump, Kim sign "comprehensive" document

[Dill]

(06-12-2018, 09:19 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
   

with the 4 points, 1 and 2 are symbolic and broad.3 again reaffirms an earlier agreement between NK and SK. 4 is the only significant one. NK is going to return some remains and prisoners. Obviously that's great. Not sure if it implies we'd return defectors. 

The rest is just an agreement that Pompeo will meet with someone to handle these 4 points.

Thanks for posting that.  That Trump is talking with Kim, who is a "strong" leader unlike the cowardly Trudeau, is a good thing. Much better than talk of fire and fury and naval exercises near the NK coast. That said, further comments.

1. Not much there, as you say, except we agree to what Kim already agreed to, without defining "denuclearization."  What is NOT in this agreement is probably most significant for evaluating it. You for got to add that this is a "Historical first".

2. This is the kind of agreement you get without the groundwork/preparation which goes over technical details.  Denuclearization, as imagined on Fox news, would require inventories of uranium mines, processing sites, missile construction and testing facilities, along with a centrifuge count, an agreement on verification, a schedule for inspection with specifications for unannounced visits, and more. Until there is agreement--not just talk or agreements to start talking--on points such as these, nothing is really going forward.

Another indication of lack of prep--the impulsive cancellation of "War games" (using NK's terminology) and talk of removing all troops from SK, blindsiding our ally.

3. Kim was on rocky political ground at home--until this meeting. If he chooses to dig in his heels at some future point of denuclearization, his support might be stronger and more consolidated than before. I will bet you $10 that sound bites of Trump lavishing praise on the Dear Leader for this strength and smarts are playing over and over on NK tv this week. Did Trump HAVE to do that? Another historical first.

4. If I remember correctly, a meeting with the president was a dangle in Clinton's Agreed Framework, to happen after the nuclear sites were removed. Kim got that "historical first" up front, with a concession about US/SK "War games".  More importantly, Kim's legitimization on the world stage is the big win for him. Think of the photo op with Kim and Trump before the row of alternating NK and US flags--the implied equivalency. Kim is now talking with world leaders without US mediation. Meetings with 4 of the big players in the international system could mean less US leverage over the NK economy.  An outcry over such open dealing with a guy who murders family members and keeps hundreds of thousands in concentration camps may roll back some of Kim's diplomatic campaign, but that is uncertain given the expanding vacuum of international leadership. Genie out of the bottle now?  Can we tell Canada, China, and Russia to keep on the sanctions or else?

In short, it seems that this meeting has significantly widened NK's options while narrowing the US's.  They clearly have the most to show for it at this point. If Trump remains in power for the next year, he and Kim can keep up talk of meetings and "agreements" while nothing changes on the ground.  Fox may hold his feet to the fire if their commentators keep talking about specifics, so this could still eventually end badly.  A prediction--talk of whether/how Trump has been played will in a few months mean Trump has to show that he wasn't. That will begin to drive policy.