Trump, Kim sign "comprehensive" document

[Dill]

(06-12-2018, 11:15 PM)BBengalzona Wrote: North Korea serves a purpose for China. But it also serves a purpose for Russia. Notice that Russia and China are not nearly as concerned with North Korea having nukes as the U.S. is. In fact, they are almost completely unconcerned about it. Yet, they have been 'within range' of those nukes from the very beginning.

Why is that?

This is an excellent question. By way of answering it, I want first to say that, while you are correct that R and C are not as concerned as the US about NK nukes, I cannot agree that they are "almost completely unconcerned."  E.g., they have willingly supported (if selectively enforced) the US/UN led sanctions. In Feb. Russia stopped imports of nickel  and copper and stopped exports of helicopters and other advanced equipment, and pledged to send back at least some of the NK workers in Russia. Last year they refused to extradite an NK defector. NK is one of the few countries who recognized Russia's Crimea claims, so Russians don't want to hurt their "friend"; but they recognize this wouldn't be a problem if NK had not produced nukes.

You know that NK serves as a "buffer" between a US client and the PRC, and the expense and time it drains from US foreign policy is a plus for them.  But it is a problem for China on several fronts, as it parks a large contingent of US forces in SK (on their block, so to speak), plus the yearly "provocative war games."  Then there are the porous borders and the potential that a trickle of refugees could become masses following conflict or were the state to collapse.  Kim's verbal battles with the US increase that risk. With Trump in the equation, someone who won't take nukes "off the table," the stakes increase mightily.  I don't think China can accept a nuclear strike so close to its borders. Same for Russia. They have to be thinking of what they can/should do when Trump finds out what denuclearization really means for Kim and Trump's own bravado will make him look weak if he doesn't do something "military" to show he means business, can't be played, etc. (I don't think even Trump would consider a nuclear strike a first option, but any military action action would likely start an uncontrollable escalation.)  The whole world would condemn a US first strike, but Russia and China would appear especially weak if they didn't try to prevent it, draw red lines, etc.

NK nukes are a two-edged sword for R and C.  They draw unwanted conflict, US military forces, and nuclear risk to R and C borders. This they certainly do not like.

But They cannot just remove NK's nukes and move the US off the peninsula, so, making the best of a bad situation, they have to like what they are seeing right now--the rift between the US and its allies; the reception of Kim by other world leaders, raising the chance of easing or ending UN sanctions which hurt their economies too.  It is unlikely even partial denuclearization can go forward with resumption of six-lateral talks, which keeps C and R in the game, shaping the outcome to heir interests. That may look like "unconcern" about nukes; but they will be very concerned if nukes escalate conflict on their borders.