07-11-2018, 11:49 AM
(07-11-2018, 11:03 AM)hollodero Wrote: lol, the Eurofighter. Ours often don't fly at all. They were quite expensive though... ok, aside from that flying disasters I sure believe things could be better in German military, especially funding-wise. No argument there. The US troops, however, aren't really there to compensate or to actually protect Germany, I believe. They're there for prevailing US interests. I don't really see troop levels reduced in either case, and if they actually are then it has nothing to do with German defense spending.
The second thing I would mention is that Germany spending on defense makes other countries nervous, and quite often it seemed one of the purposes of NATO to avoid just that. Their restraint to arm up was often very much desired and welcomed from others.
Except US troops have been drawn down in the past and are only recently being ramped up. Your point about not being there to protect Germany, but US interests, is odd. Protecting Germany is in the US interest. How are troops there protecting US interests in a way other than defending weaker allied nations? Also, while I get historically based fear of an armed Germany I think it's far less rational to fear Germany than Russia.
Quote:Annexing the Crimea had multiple reasons and happened after a chain of events, it's not just on Obama. Being risk-averse isn't the worst trait in my opinion, for what would have been the alternative. War with Russia? No one would have wanted that. Maybe his threatening levels weren't quite as plausible, and there sure were mistakes made (I really wasn't a fan of Obama regarding his foreign policies, so it's not like I want to defend a hero of mine here). Overall though, I prefer Obama's approach which sure was welcome after the Cowboys led the country right into an awful war. His approach was far from perfect, but not comparable to Trump. Is the way I see it.
Annexing the Crimea occurred because Putin knew he could do it and the west, the US included, wouldn't do anything meaningful about it. There are interventions in between sanctions and a deceleration of war, but Putin knew none of those would be used due to a risk averse Obama and an militarily impotent Europe. I completely agree about Bush, the second Iraq war was the absolutely worst foreign policy blunder in the history of the US. Russia invading the Crimea is far more akin to Iraq invading Kuwait.
Quote:Obama implied quite severe sanctions and took a harder line against Putin, that sure was the end of that, but again I'm not sure what else could have been done aside from that. Trump, on the other hand, never even mentions Crimea and buddies up to Putin. I know what I'd prefer, and I can't see any equality between Trump and Obama's faults here.
Trump was presented with a fait accompli on Crimea. Ascribing any blame to him on the subject is disingenuous. The question is, how do we proceed from here? Let things simmer as is or try and change them in a meaningful way?
Quote:In other words, if Obama had cozied up the way Trump did... folks would have called it appeasement. It would be different folk than those accusing Trump of that right now, me being very much amongst them. "More acquainted to their style"... I can't see that as excuse for what Trump is doing here with Putin. If Trump can't adapt his ways and his assessments to the necessities of his new job, he's in the worst job possible for him. Obama's faults are a distant runner-up to this behaviour mistake-wise.
(I sure think there's a completely different reason for Trump's behaviour, but ok.)
The extreme difference being that Putin stole the Crimea on Obama's watch. Again, the question is how do we proceed from here?
Quote:I have to mention though that the '84 Russia was a whole lot of different than the current Russia, and so were the fears of the people. Back then we pretty much feared nuclear annihilation. These days we fear subversion of our democracies. And rightfully so. European countries are constantly under Russian-led cyber attacks, and they aren't uneffective or unimportant fringe phenomena at all.
I completely agree, it appears the sanctions have had no meaningful effect on Russia's conduct.
Quote:Brexit for example ws Russian funded, now sure the movement doesn't originate in Russia, but as close as that one went one could make the argument Russian efforts tipped that one. Other movements have roots in Russia as well, and same goes for #Calexit or #Walkaway of #releasethememo and thousands of meme wars and alternative reality placements, e.g propaganda campaigns, led in the most effective way these days. That do often work.
I am aware of all of this. Russia is playing a very subtle and effective game here. All of this returns to my main quesiton though, how do we proceed from here?
Quote:I don't get where you're going here at all. First off, we can't make Putin realize anything. I can't see Trump (or anyone really) walking in the Kreml and making some decent points Putin has to think about.
Secondly, right now Russia is one of the most odious regimes, only beat by NK and IS and folks like those. The Russians are the ones invading other countries and attacking us (Europe and US), and I don't see the word "attack" as hyperbole. In these times, I don't see the point in shifting the focus to another potential long-time threat and just let Putin be Putin. That would be his dream, wouldn't it.
And I never would believe he'd focus on China instead of Europe. That's just not how Russia or Putin ticks historically and actually, and as long as China doesn't attack them that won't change. Also, think about how Putin reigns (oligarchy and money) and what he needs for that. He finds that in the west.
And playing a weak hand masterfully very much includes low financial effort-high output manoeuvers like troll farms, misinformation campaigns and hacking. But I sure feel you don't take that aspect as seriously as I am.
What I'm getting at is who is the long term threat and how do we proceed. Russia is not driven by ideology, they are driven by national furor, a desire to be relevant and Putin's greed. The are the obvious threat, but not even remotely the biggest one. China is driven by ideology and national furor. There is no peeling them away from anyone because they are the polar opposite. It is possible to pull Russia back into the western orbit. They have far more cause for animus towards China then they do towards the West, that they don't express it now is due to many factors. The bottom line is this, do we accept Russia as a Chinese vassal state and all that implies or do we try and change that? Your argument seems to be we can't change it so why try.
