07-12-2018, 12:59 AM
(07-11-2018, 01:22 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well of course it's not rational. I merely meant to say that there is resistance to an armed Germany, and it's still a significant resistance, though of course not compared to the former century. But still. Wanting them to spend more on military is a shift, and it takes time to adapt to that shift. The 2% suggestion isn't decade-long old, it stems from 2014... now if Germany had used a lot of money immediately to buy lots of tanks and rockets and stuff, imagine the reaction. Take Lucie's reaction by half... still a pretty strong reaction.
Fair enough. I lived in Europe when de-nazification was still in effect, I can understand the concern.
Quote:Still, I am in favor of the 2% and yeah it's about time Europe took their defense in their own hands. Regarding US troops and defense. I don't think it's their main reason of existence. The US has bases everywhere in the world, often in countries that don't need protection from foes. These bases are just that, bases. For starting operations, places to retreat, places to organize operations from, a troop reserve etc. etc. Defending Germany is something I don't see among the top reasons. If it were about that, troops wouldn't be what's needed (rather anti-aircraft and such things).
The Us has bases in most nations to defend that nation and often surrounding nations. The bases are also there by invitation, with the possibly exception of Okinawa. Force projection is part of defense. The best defense is a good offense and all. Additionally, attacking said nation is also an attack on US troops, which is an attack on the US, essentially a deceleration of war against the United States.
Quote:I don't refute that, but that's far from the only reason. Another one being that a former boxer believed it would be wise to revolt against a vastly corrupt, but democraticly legitimized government. Without having any plan beyond that, leading to turmoil, chaos and actual Nazis running homeland security (or something like that) and lots of other things. The opportunity created for Putin was far from being Obama's sole fault.
Europeans encouraging the boxer and his accoplices has a lot to do with it also. They all failed, Obama sure not excluded.
I already mentioned the extreme strategic importance of the black sea fleet port. The main point being that Putin knew he could get away with it as the west would do nothing of substance to stop him.
Quote:Like what?
Complete economic strangulation (which Europe wouldn't do because then they'd have to pay the US more for liquefied natural gas for heating), total asset seizure of all foreign Russian investments, blanket denial for all Russian businesses and citizens from accessing western financial services, limited to escalated military direct military action. Putin wasn't willing to risk a real war over the Crimea, he was willign to risk the west wouldn't do anything of real substance. he was correct.
Quote:Far more akin, yes, but hardly the same thing. Saddam was a decade-long US ally looking for the promised reward for leading a war. Putin is no such thing.
No, Saddam was the enemy of my enemy. Hardly the same thing as our ally. Don't try and play blame the US for the Kuwait invasion, you normally do a good job of not being stereo-typically European.
Quote:Yes it is, and I don't blame him for the annexion, of course not. I do blame him for obviously taking the position that this is done and no longer worthy of consideration or any kind of backlash. As if Putin just sat that one out. I disagree with that position.
It is done. The time to take action on it has passed and then some. So the question remains, where do we go from here?
Quote:I don't know. If it were up to me, I'd probably take a hard look at banning the oligarchs from doing business in the west. Also I'd think about a global initiative against the cyber threats. Thiungs the TRump adminstratin doesn't even consider (also Germany and others, it's not solely Trump's fault)
What I'm most certainly against is trying to be cozy with Putin. That's the wrong way to treat him, and I'm not really willing to change my mind on this. I also think it's wrong to let Crimea be Crimea just because that wasn't Trump's fault, and I'm also against ignoring the Russian propaganda attacks, like Trump seems to be willing to do. Is that unfair to say? He states he believes what Putin says, after all.
If you think anything short of military intervention will free Crimea from Russian control at this point your delusional. The time for economic action has passed and then some. China has provided Russia with far too many back doors for them to really effect them now anyways.
Quote:I have a slightly different take on that. I don't see Russia as a Chinese vassal state
Neither does Russia.
Quote:, and I think the Chinese are too smart to treat them as such.
Not overtly, no, at least not for the time being.
Quote:If any, the Chinese are now in business with Russia due to the western sanctions, and they are closer now. And what could one do against that? Lifting the sanctions and letting Pution do whatever he pleases just so he likes us better than China is not the way to go. Not in my book, anyway.
(If Obama had suggested that course of action, you'd have quite a lot of things to say about that, and so would I.)
Lifting sanctions would never be the first step.
Quote:Do you have an answer to your question (how to proceed)? Would tht really be to lift the sanctions and try a softer approach? I couldn't quite figure out your exact position here.
I've answered this before but I'll do so again. Cease eastward expansion of NATO. While it is essentially harmless the Russians have a visceral reaction to it and perceive it as rubbing the cold war loss in their faces. Meet with Russia and introduce the idea of gradual cooperation and support. Let Russia, slowly, into the West's "boys club" which they've wanted to be a part of since the 1800's. Privately remind them of China's huge shared border with Russia and the Chinese "historical claims" on much of Siberia. Remind them how China deals with historical claims a la the South China Sea. Essentially do what we should have done upon the collapse of the Soviet Union, pick them up off the ground brush of their shoulder, grasp their hand, pat them on the back and go get a drink with them. Russian psychology is tremendously wrapped up in being taken seriously and seen as an equal. Start to give them that. Russia is an easy country to understand, they are obsessed with being relevant, let them be. Essentially, politically seduce them. It's very doable and no one has ever tried it before. They don't like the Chinese, let them not hate us to the point that they remember this.
