Trump Slams Allies in favor of Putin (again)...

[hollodero]

(07-12-2018, 12:59 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Complete economic strangulation (which Europe wouldn't do because then they'd have to pay the US more for liquefied natural gas for heating), total asset seizure of all foreign Russian investments, blanket denial for all Russian businesses and citizens from accessing western financial services, limited to escalated military direct military action.  Putin wasn't willing to risk a real war over the Crimea, he was willign to risk the west wouldn't do anything of real substance.  he was correct.

Right. Things you said make a lot of sense, this one included... while I realized I proposed similar courses of action right now, and I can't quite blame Trump for not doing what Obama wasn't doing as well. Meaning, I can't defend Obama on that one really, or Europe for that matter.
One thing is different now, that being Russia starting to run propaganda attacks in the meantime. And there I have a problem with Trump specifically, in that he seems to be unwillling to acknowledge that.

-- For some reason, and that's an unreasonable reason, the propaganda hits closer to home for me than the Crimea annexion, which in some respect I probably view as not an unlogical correction of a border drawn the wrong way in the first place. Including wrong for Ukraine, because that Ost vs. West/ Russia vs. Europe conflict in that country paralyzed it to the point of not functioning at all. Of course I know it was still very wrong to annex Crimea and I should see that as objectively worse... but the propaganda is more hostile towards me personally and the folks in western countries.
Hard to get data on this one, but I can recognize Russian bots in the comment sections of local newspapers etc., and though it's not provable I am quie certain about the bots appearing there, and it's spooky. Especially knowing how effective their overall net operations are in the end.
And the west is not united against that threat, and that one is on Trump for big parts. Believing Putin's words over all our intelligence's findings (not just the rigged US intelligence) is unforgivable to me.

(07-12-2018, 12:59 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: No, Saddam was the enemy of my enemy.  Hardly the same thing as our ally.  Don't try and play blame the US for the Kuwait invasion, you normally do a good job of not being stereo-typically European.  

I'm not? That's a bummer... ok, you're not the stereotypical US Conservative either. There you have it.
Of course my choice of words was bad. Your actual allies would never lead a war on your behalf... :) But sure, enemy of an enemy, ally; these fine distinctions are too fine for outsiders. But the US did back Saddam for a long time, hence helping to create the situation that led to the Kuwait annexion. I usually blame Saddam for being Saddam and not someone else primarily, but I don't think that whole chain of events is amongst the more proud moments in US foreign policy. US sure helped create the monster.

(07-12-2018, 12:59 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I've answered this before but I'll do so again.  Cease eastward expansion of NATO.  While it is essentially harmless the Russians have a visceral reaction to it and perceive it as rubbing the cold war loss in their faces.  Meet with Russia and introduce the idea of gradual cooperation and support.  Let Russia, slowly, into the West's "boys club" which they've wanted to be a part of since the 1800's.  Privately remind them of China's huge shared border with Russia and the Chinese "historical claims" on much of Siberia.  Remind them how China deals with historical claims a la the South China Sea.  Essentially do what we should have done upon the collapse of the Soviet Union, pick them up off the ground brush of their shoulder, grasp their hand, pat them on the back and go get a drink with them.  Russian psychology is tremendously wrapped up in being taken seriously and seen as an equal.  Start to give them that.  Russia is an easy country to understand, they are obsessed with being relevant, let them be.  Essentially, politically seduce them.  It's very doable and no one has ever tried it before.

Hm. I have a feeling that's similar to the approach we chose after the Soviet Union broke apart. We promoted businesses go there, we let them into the G7, for some time the new leaders up to Putin were treated as a guest of honor. I don't know if it's time to try that again, after all that's happened, I can't quite see a policy of reconciliation with that particular leader. And while I don't disagree with your assessment of Russian psychology (which is a bit broad, in that probably most folk on this planet have a similar attitude), I think it's incomplete though, as it lacks their reaction to percieved weakness. Which was kind of your own (fair) point regarding Obama.
And I'm afraid that would be Putin's take if we started to meet his demands and go for cooperation. His goals will not align with ours still, meaning that course of action might just encourage him to take it even further with all the meddling and other cyper attacks; it might even make him take a harder look at the Baltic states again. I'm not willing to give up the hard line at this point against a man who actively tries to distort the west. You'd think he'd stop that if we're just nice to him and remind him of the South China sea? I don't see that happening.

Since you asked where to go from here, I keep my stance, which is we need to look strong as well, and we need sanctions, albeit maybe indeed different ones. Ones that hurt Putin personally, meaning I don't want to strangle their economy, I want to strangle the oligarchs and their businesses specifically. How those guys still can do business in the west and run all their accounts etc. is beyond me in the first place. Also, I think we need a concerted effort to counter the cyber attacks more effectively.

Finally, ceasing he NATO expansion probably would have been a good idea from the start, or maybe replacing the whole NATO construct in the first place after the end of the cold war. But making concessions right now is the wrong signal, I'd say. Putin won't take that as an "Hey, they're reasonable and treat us with respect, so let's lay down the things I'm doing to weaken them in exchange and think about China instead", but rather something like "hey look, we can extort them to meet our demands! That's a winning strategy!" - And I don't think it's a good idea to give Putin a win at this point.