07-12-2018, 11:46 AM
(07-12-2018, 11:16 AM)hollodero Wrote: Right. Things you said make a lot of sense, this one included... while I realized I proposed similar courses of action right now, and I can't quite blame Trump for not doing what Obama wasn't doing as well. Meaning, I can't defend Obama on that one really, or Europe for that matter.
One thing is different now, that being Russia starting to run propaganda attacks in the meantime. And there I have a problem with Trump specifically, in that he seems to be unwillling to acknowledge that.
Propaganda/disinformation attacks are hard to address as the standard public can't "see" it. Sure, they see the results, but they are easily deniable and, with all the news sources out there it's hard to convince people of what is and is not credible. Hence hanging punitive responses on these actions is difficult at best.
Quote:-- For some reason, and that's an unreasonable reason, the propaganda hits closer to home for me than the Crimea annexion, which in some respect I probably view as not an unlogical correction of a border drawn the wrong way in the first place. Including wrong for Ukraine, because that Ost vs. West/ Russia vs. Europe conflict in that country paralyzed it to the point of not functioning at all. Of course I know it was still very wrong to annex Crimea and I should see that as objectively worse... but the propaganda is more hostile towards me personally and the folks in western countries.
Hard to get data on this one, but I can recognize Russian bots in the comment sections of local newspapers etc., and though it's not provable I am quie certain about the bots appearing there, and it's spooky. Especially knowing how effective their overall net operations are in the end.
And the west is not united against that threat, and that one is on Trump for big parts. Believing Putin's words over all our intelligence's findings (not just the rigged US intelligence) is unforgivable to me.
Or maybe that's just what they wan't you to think.
Trump can't publicly admit that Russia does this as he'd be handing over a huge stockpile of ammunition to the Dems to fire back at him. Schumer, Pelosi and Waters would have a field day if he admitted any Russian interference in the 2016 election.Quote:I'm not? That's a bummer... ok, you're not the stereotypical US Conservative either. There you have it.
Of course my choice of words was bad. Your actual allies would never lead a war on your behalf... :) But sure, enemy of an enemy, ally; these fine distinctions are too fine for outsiders. But the US did back Saddam for a long time, hence helping to create the situation that led to the Kuwait annexion. I usually blame Saddam for being Saddam and not someone else primarily, but I don't think that whole chain of events is amongst the more proud moments in US foreign policy. US sure helped create the monster.
The ninja mask should have implied I was being sarcastic. Sure we did, just as we did in Afghanistan with the mujahideen that eventually spawned the Taliban and Al Queda.
Quote:Hm. I have a feeling that's similar to the approach we chose after the Soviet Union broke apart. We promoted businesses go there, we let them into the G7, for some time the new leaders up to Putin were treated as a guest of honor. I don't know if it's time to try that again, after all that's happened, I can't quite see a policy of reconciliation with that particular leader. And while I don't disagree with your assessment of Russian psychology (which is a bit broad, in that probably most folk on this planet have a similar attitude), I think it's incomplete though, as it lacks their reaction to percieved weakness. Which was kind of your own (fair) point regarding Obama.
More no than yes. We treated Russia as a vanquished opponent and threw them some crumbs. If we had started treating them as the equal they were when they were the USSR (or something close to that) we could have forged something like a lasting friendship. We didn't and it's Clinton's biggest mistake of his presidency IMO. Instead we expanded NATO towards their borders.
Quote:And I'm afraid that would be Putin's take if we started to meet his demands and go for cooperation. His goals will not align with ours still, meaning that course of action might just encourage him to take it even further with all the meddling and other cyper attacks; it might even make him take a harder look at the Baltic states again. I'm not willing to give up the hard line at this point against a man who actively tries to distort the west. You'd think he'd stop that if we're just nice to him and remind him of the South China sea? I don't see that happening.
No, I think he'd see the logic in long term aligning himself with the west over China, a country that traditionally holds his in contempt. Russia is an ally of convenience for China, there is nothing like the links between the US and UK between them and there never will be. Putin is not stupid, he realizes this, he just has no other alternatives right now. Start, gradually, giving him one. I agree with not giving up a hard line right now. Open this door in small increments.
Quote:Since you asked where to go from here, I keep my stance, which is we need to look strong as well, and we need sanctions, albeit maybe indeed different ones. Ones that hurt Putin personally, meaning I don't want to strangle their economy, I want to strangle the oligarchs and their businesses specifically. How those guys still can do business in the west and run all their accounts etc. is beyond me in the first place. Also, I think we need a concerted effort to counter the cyber attacks more effectively.
Agreed on all counts, with incentives thrown in for certain actions, such as ceasing armed conflict in Ukraine.
Quote:Finally, ceasing he NATO expansion probably would have been a good idea from the start, or maybe replacing the whole NATO construct in the first place after the end of the cold war.
100% true, which was one of my points about treating Russia as a vanquished for rather than a potential friend. This more than anything cemented in the Russian mind that we were their enemy, not just the enemy of the Soviet Union.
Quote:But making concessions right now is the wrong signal, I'd say. Putin won't take that as an "Hey, they're reasonable and treat us with respect, so let's lay down the things I'm doing to weaken them in exchange and think about China instead", but rather something like "hey look, we can extort them to meet our demands! That's a winning strategy!" - And I don't think it's a good idea to give Putin a win at this point.
You act like these concessions would have to be given in return for nothing. They wouldn't have to be.
