Helsinki--the Tipping Point?

[Benton]

(07-17-2018, 03:55 PM)Dill Wrote: Concisely expressed and persuasive.  


Not always. We pretty much have FDR (plus a world war) to thank for the UN, World Bank, IMF, NATO etc., even if Truman had to see all that through. You are right that these complex foreign policy relations are "beyond" any one president, if by that you mean to directly control. But it is not beyond any one president to maintain existing alliances, and it is not beyond any one to sabotage them. I think this president may effect a massive re-arrangement, and there will be little our own intel community and DOD, or comparable "in-house" forces, can do about it. (I made this argument earlier this year regarding the Far East as well.)

I say that because Trump is forcing allies to step back and re-consider their national interest. The problem goes beyond Trump, since there is a significant segment of the American voting public who embraced his bad judgment as good sense. They cannot be voted out of office and will remain long after Trump. Our allies understand this. The impetus for change will come largely from the EU itself, and will be hard to stop once put in motion. Countries have to figure out how to insure economic and military security. That imperative drives them to consider alternatives, to create, and sometimes go with, a plan B or a plan C.  

To the bold, you could be right. Although, I would be surprised. The same folks that pushed for Bush to expand government bloat and put multiple agencies under fewer umbrellas are largely the same folks who are still holding those umbrella handles. And many of the appointments and advancements in agencies like CentComm fall in line with that so that when someone like Obama comes along, it makes it easier to manipulate data and facilitate outcomes.

And having typed that, I sound like a conspiracy theorist. But it's really not, it's just the same big Washington players who have been floating around appointments and departments since the 70s. No conspiracy, they do their manipulating out in the open, pretty much.

As far as the last graf, I dunno. I think most countries realize minor changes are going to happen from time to time. Sometimes we love Turkey, sometimes we shake our head, for example. But we're still allies. Those allies know that what the American people want is largely irrelevant. Almost every poll will tell you the same: US citizens want jobs, wage growth, less involvement in other countries, less war, better healthcare and more education opportunities. And we keep getting the same results because, by and large, the same people are in charge: stagnant job growth, flat wages, more fighting, more involvement in other countries, worse healthcare and less education/higher secondary ed costs.