Mixon Is Draft Sharks 2018 BREAKOUT PLAYER!

[BFritz21]

Draft Sharks has Mixon posted as their breakout player for 2018, and it feels like everything is coming together for us this season!

You might need a subscription to view all of that, but here's some highlights:

Quote:Reasons for Optimism
Down the stretch, Mixon seemed to find a groove. From Week 12 onward — a sample of 51 carries — he averaged 5.0 yards per rush.

On the year, he factored in prominently near the goal line, seeing 78.3% of Cincy’s runs inside the 10 (per Pro Football Reference). That rate led the league.

Mixon ranked 11th league-wide in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades (min. 100 carries). His Week 12 performance vs. Cleveland earned him the 5th-highest single-game grade by a RB all year.

Football Outsiders had him 17th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and 19th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. (Both are out of 47 qualifiers.)

You gotta think that, with a full offseason under Lazor's new offense and with Pollack's new power blocking scheme (along with new linemen), and without Hill to steal carries, that Mixon is just poised to explode.

I also think that he makes us unstoppable in the red zone because good luck trying to cover AJ and load the box to stop him, never mind guys like Eifert, Ross, and our other TEs like Kroft and Uzomah.

Quote:2018 Environment
Mixon enters year 2 as the undisputed lead back.

Back at the Combine, player personnel director Duke Tobin called Mixon a “bellcow.”

In June, Bengals reporter Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer shared the following:

“I think this offense is going to be based around what Joe Mixon can be. That's how they [the coaching staff] view it. I think they view him as their Ezekiel Elliott. They're going to come in with this Frank Pollack style [and] blow them off the ball.”

Dehner added that this offense is expected to “simplify, add aggression and see an overall shift of focus toward the run game.”

Such a transition is possible with OC Bill Lazor entering his 1st full season on the job and the aforementioned Pollack (the new OL coach) now in town.

Pollack arrives after coaching the O-line in Dallas from 2013-2017 (the 1st 2 years as an OL assistant). His power style sits in stark contrast to what the Bengals primarily ran last season.

Wisely, the front office overhauled the O-line, which could feature as many as 4 new starters. Newcomers Cordy Glenn (LT) and Billy Price © bring the most promise.

Glenn, 28, arrived in a trade with Buffalo. Health has been the issue for the mammoth tackle, forcing 17 absences over the past 2 seasons. But he’s healthy entering camp and should supply a much-needed upgrade.

Price joined the Bengals as their 1st-round pick, even though he suffered a partially torn pectoral at the Combine. That he still went so high speaks to his talent level. Already a full participant in camp, Price is a Day 1 starter and profiles as another upgrade.

The Bengals do have questions at RG and RT, but with new faces and a new leader of the group, we’re confident the blocking will improve in front of Mixon will improve.

We’re optimistic on the skill guys, too. Eifert remains a major red flag but insists he’ll be fine for Week 1 and missed less than a week of training camp before coming off the PUP list. Ross, back healthy, has flashed early in camp and brings the potential to stretch defenses. Even 3rd-year slot WR Tyler Boyd has generated early summer buzz.

That just mentions Mixon coming into the season as the lead dog, which is big for his mentality and confidence, and then also mentions more about the offensive line.

Quote:Weight Cut
Mixon reportedly played last season around 230 pounds. But in a move that’s typically applauded, the 2nd-year man has cut weight — 12 pounds to be exact.

“I feel like that’s where I play my best," Mixon told the Bengals’ official site. "I was trying to get low last year but I wasn’t able to make it. I feel real good. My body feels real good. I feel like I’m in really good shape.”

Frankly, Mixon better be in excellent shape, as his workload should spike this fall.

From 2011-2016, the Bengals averaged 393 RB rushes per season. (They were way down at 331 in their outlier 2017.) If we apply Mixon’s 53.8% share of 2017 RB carries to the 6-year average, you get 211 carries.

Then you have to account for Jeremy Hill’s departure and the 37 carries he leaves behind.

And Mixon’s 2 full missed games (concussion).

And his 5 combined quarters missed (concussion and ankle).

Though that lens, our 224-carry projection becomes very reachable.

But what about Gio Bernard? Isn’t his presence a hindrance to Mixon?

Probably not …

I love that he's playing at a weight where he feels he's best at and not listening to coaches or "experts" preaching to him about how he needs to be and how he needs to run.

Quote:Wrap Up
We know we're not unearthing some big secret. Entering August, Mixon's ADP sits in late-2nd-round or early-3rd-round territory. He's RB14 in recent My Fantasy League drafts; RB15 on Fantasy Football Calculator.

We still see profit potential, though. Mixon currently sits 11th in our PPR ranks with an attainable ceiling projection of 298 points. That finish would have ranked 4th among RBs last season, 4th in 2016 and 2nd in 2015.

He's young. He's uber-athletic. He's poised for workhorse touches. Now with an O-line that should at least improve and an offense primed to bounce back, we're confident putting our full endorsement behind Mixon.

They're projecting him as a top 5 back, so imagine what that will do for AJ being already ranked a top 5 receiver and Ross going deep when they sellout to try and stop Mixon and AJ!

I'M FIRED UP!