Pelosi, Schumer To Trump: "Let's Debate Border Funds in Private"

[Belsnickel]

(12-17-2018, 09:03 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Nope, I said in the beginning I thought the first report was high.

Then because if you guys trying to discredit the whole thing, I went and got REAL data to prove my point.
297k Anchor babies born per year average
https://cis.org/Report/Births-Legal-and-Illegal-Immigrants-US

In 2014, one in five births (791,000) in the United States was to an immigrant mother (legal or illegal). Our best estimate is that legal immigrants accounted for 12.4 percent (494,000) of all births, and illegal immigrants accounted for 7.5 percent (297,000).

Among the native-born, a large share of new mothers (42 percent) are either uninsured or on Medicaid. The rate is even higher among new mothers who are legal immigrants (47 percent) and higher still for new mothers who are in the United States illegally (67 percent). Almost all of these births are likely paid for by taxpayers.

We estimate that the cost to taxpayers for births to immigrants (legal and illegal) is roughly $5.3 billion — $2.4 billion of which is for illegal immigrants.

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Average cost of birth in US, $10,808

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/23/a-typical-american-birth-costs-as-much-as-delivering-a-royal-baby

States spent on average $12,903 per student (using nationwide average, but states like NY, CA, FL & TX costs are higher and number of illegals is also concentrated more in these states).

https://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/state_edwatch/2018/01/how_much_does_america_spend_on_its_schools.html

Cost of Anchor Babies to US Gov.
So again, 297k x 13 (number of years kids are currently in school) x $12,903 = $49.82 Billion annually.

Cost to birth these babies annually:
297k x .67 x 10,808 = $3.2 Billion annually.

These 2 costs alone is $53 Billion annually

Because the majority of them live in Poverty, the USC Children are eligible for:
CHIP, TANF, Medicaid, WIC, School Breakfast and Lunches etc

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/us-taxpayers-bear-weight-of-anchor-babies/
Welfare programs make up a significant share of federal and state spending — $670 billion at the federal level alone — and illegals who receive it pay little or no income tax to help defray those costs. So birth tourism is creating a net fiscal burden for the country.

CIS notes that the Department of Homeland Security undercounts the illegal immigrant population by at least 10% and that Census undercounts the number of people on welfare. That means that the actual welfare-use rate for illegals is much higher.
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So 10% of $670B is another $67B annually. These numbers are based on 10% even though it says the numbers are low..

so now $130 Billion annually.

https://itep.org/immigration/

A newly updated report released today provides data that helps dispute the erroneous idea espoused during President Trump’s address to Congress that undocumented immigrants are a drain to taxpayers. In fact,  like all others living and working in the United States, undocumented immigrants are taxpayers too and collectively contribute an estimated $11.74 billion to state and local coffers each year via a combination of sales and excise, personal income, and property taxes, according to Undocumented Immigrants’ State and Local Tax Contributions by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

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So $130B-$11.74B = $118.26B

Is it me or did I just do all of the work that the original report stated that you all claim is debunked using various resources???

I didn't even make it yet to how much it costs us annually to imprison the illegals yet.. of which 30% of federal prisoners are illegals.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/federal-prison-illegal-immigrants-taxpayers-pay-about-billion/

The U.S. Department of Justice released statistics today regarding aliens incarcerated in the Federal Bureau of Prisons. It found that as of March 25, there were 41,528 illegal immigrants in its prison system. The cost of this to the American taxpayer runs into the billions.

Which is to say that U.S. taxpayers are spending in the ballpark of $1.2 billion per year on the incarceration of illegal immigrants. The Federal Bureau of Prisons spends on average $29,226 per year on each inmate (this average takes into account all inmates, including those who need high security, medium security, and low security). Moreover, U.S. taxpayers are footing a bill of roughly $660 million per year — or $1.8 million per day — for inmates who have already received deportation orders.

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So add back $1.2B+$118.26B=$119.46B

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/dec/15/legalizing-dreamers-would-cost-26-billion-cbo/
Then there is DACA Kids. CBO Estimates costs to the US Tax Payer at $26B/Annually for the next decade

$26B + $119.46B = $145.46B

Then Court costs for fighting the Sanctuary Cities to release convicts.

NOW, with all of that said. I think it's safe to say it's really a problem.

You did a lot of work to show a flawed number. Your estimates make a lot of assumptions, such as the children (US citizens, mind you, not undocumented immigrants) being here and in school all thirteen years, that they actually receive benefits (children, even USC children of undocumented parents often don't receive benefits because the parents fear any interaction with the government), you are grossly underestimating the taxes that are paid in (income and payroll taxes can be avoided, but property taxes and sales taxes are unavoidable), and on, and on, and on with the flaws in your analysis.

Your attempt to do this is admirable, but it is based on nothing more than a surface level understanding of policy. Really digging into these numbers requires a more in depth understanding of the analysis behind them and how to figure into that the analysis the high number of complicating factors. This is why I said there is no real way to tell. Seriously, I read journals on this sort of thing, I study policy analysis, I eat, sleep, and breathe statistical tests. I have yet to see an assessment of this issue that lays out in any certain terms the net economic impacts of illegal immigration.

What this all tells me, that some of the best economists in the world have been unable to give a definitive answer to this, is that stopping the flow of undocumented immigrants with something as costly as a wall on the southern border (especially when a large proportion of those illegal immigrants never crossed the southern border but came in by other means) should not be a policy priority when so many other things are negatively impacting the citizenry on a daily basis.