01-16-2019, 05:33 PM
(01-16-2019, 04:44 PM)Dill Wrote: I like the kernel idea behind Nati's thread here. It reminds of how, in the intel services dealing with foreign policy/actors, there used to be something called a RED CAP exercise. Someone on the team would identify with the national interests of a foreign aggressor and try to view a conflict region through those interests to determine what might best serve them and what might best thwart them. Then the "Americans" in the exercise would have a better idea how NOT to further the adversaries interests and how to further the home team's.
Nati's "traitor" exercise is something like that, but maybe a little non specific at the moment. Right wingers will certainly claim Obama is dividing people, etc. just as much as Trump. Better to try the red cap thing so we can get some kind of factual and specific baseline.
Imagine the world from Putin's perspective, Russian national interest as HE sees it (not how the few remaining liberal democrats in Russia see it). What are the biggest obstacles to expansion of Russian military, economic and political power? Most would agree these are
1. NATO
2. The EU
3. US/UN sanctions
4. Islamist resurgence in the caucasus
5. China's continuing military/economic expansion--now the second largest economy in the world.
There can be more, but that is enough for a start. Would anyone dispute this list? If not, then can't we say that the leader or official of ANY government--France, Great Britain, the US--who weakened NATO or the EU or circumvented sanctions would be in Putin's interest, intentionally or unintentionally? Couldn't we also assume that political dissension--not just any kind, but dissension reducing the resolve to continue NATO and sanctions, and sowing distrust in intel services and democratic institutions--would also be in Russia's interest?
Obama and Trump's names have been mentioned. Perhaps we can ask which president's actions have most furthered Putin/Russia's national interests, and which have circumvented it? Then we can talk about facts, specific actions, and not conspiracies.
Well Obama did let him pull off the first annexation of territory since the second world war with minimal consequence. I'd say access to a year round warm water port was a bigger coup for Putin than anything he pulls off during the Trump years.
