Was Ending The Shutdown Honorable?!

[BmorePat87]

(01-30-2019, 01:25 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Read away:

It looks like this is assuming the cost of the wall would be 7 billion instead of 5, and it STILL PAYS FOR ITSELF:

There's more in the link, but there's your savings.

CIS misuses NAS's data and was even called out on it by those who found the data.

One of the first issues is that they purposefully left out the economic impact of 2nd generation children, who tend to be some of the strongest economic contributors and offset their parents. They leave in the cost of these children and then leave out their contributions as adults. 

They also took the 8 future tax and spending scenarios from the NAS report and averaged them, but the scenarios include some extreme examples. The authors of the report said that the most likely scenarios should have been used not an average of 8 very different and unrelated scenarios. 

CIS also used the CBO's long term budget outlook which is often flawed for assuming Congress will cut the deficit. 

The CIS estimates that 1.7m immigrants will cross the border in a decade, using the estimate of 170,000 in 2015 and just multiplying it by 10. This doesn't take into account actual growth of the illegal immigrant population. 170,000 may come, but not all are seeking permanent residence, so it doesn't take into account those who leave. 

The CIS also suggests that the wall would stop 9-12% (which would pay of itself), but this figure is incredibly high. It is also dependent on the 1.7m all being unique, which we know is false. There are many repeat crossers. Tucked into the footnotes is the admission that the wall might need to stop as many as 20% of all crossings to pay for itself. 


Final analysis: The CIS report relies too heavily on data from a group that has stated that CIS used their data incorrectly and made many false assumptions. It is also reliant on a very high efficacy rate and purposefully chooses to not look at the effect of immigrant children once they are adults. For this reason, one cannot accept their findings.