02-04-2019, 05:27 PM
For the policy wonks out there who know that, since WWII, the costliest policy decisions for the US have been in FOREIGN policy, two questions:
1. Does it look to anyone else like Trump may have been led into this pullout by Putin? Hard to say for sure, given the erratic character of some of his advisors. But it looks like the US got Russia out of a treaty that was limiting Putin's arsenal.
2. One of my first concerns when I heard of this pull out was that it comes at a moment when China (our most important global competitor) and Russia are working ever more closely together to limit/contest or otherwise change the rules of the liberal international order constructed by the US after WWII. Is this just another misstep or could one argue that there is a different long game here, maybe which exiting the INF Treaty leaves the US free to install intermediate missiles in SK and Japan. Would they allow that?
All I see in this move is loss, not gain.
World War 3: Russia warns US of 'NEW ERA' after Trump scraps INF nuclear treaty
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1082308/world-war-3-russia-us-cold-war-inf-treaty-nuclear-trump-putin
Moscow issued its latest warning amid fears the US President’s decision would bring the world closer to a Cold War and allow a build-up of intermediate-range nuclear weapons on their Eastern flank. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: ”I don't think we're talking about the development of a Cold War. “A new era has begun." Alarm spread through Europe after the announcement on Friday that Donald Trump had abandoned the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
'Huge mistake': Fears of arms race as US, Russia suspend INF pact. Analysts say demise of arms control treaty offers US little strategic benefit, pushes world 'closer to a nuclear war'.3 Feb 2019.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/mistake-fears-arms-race-russia-suspend-inf-pact-190203152747235.html
The long-running dispute between Washington and Moscow came to a head on Friday when US President Donald Trump accused Russia of violating the 1987 bilateral treaty with "impunity", and announced his government was suspending its obligations under the landmark pact.
Pledging to "move forward" with its own military response options, Trump said the US will withdraw from the accord in six months unless Moscow destroyed land-based missiles allegedly deployed in violation of the treaty.
In a tit-for-tat move on Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was also suspending Moscow's participation in the agreement. ...
The reciprocal moves effectively terminate a pact regarded as one of the most important safeguards against nuclear war....
Analysts said Trump's decision to scrap the pact leaves Russia free to shape the military balance in Europe.
The strategic advantages for the US, however, were less clear, they said....
"Let's be clear - the Russians were cheating," said Tom Nichols, a US-based defence analyst. "It was a provocation to menace the Europeans and to see if they could bait the Americans into walking away."
The US response only showed how "confused" Washington's nuclear arms policy was, he said. . . .
Carl Bildt, a co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, agreed. The INF Treaty's demise will allow Russia to deploy its Kalibr cruise missiles with a range of 1,500km from ground launchers, he said in a Twitter post on Friday.
"This would quickly cover all of Europe with an additional threat," he said....
China's nuclear missile arsenal
The "real reason" for the US pullout, according to Fitzpatrick, the non-proliferation expert, was Washington's concern over China's buildup of intermediate-range missiles in the Western Pacific.
China's inventory contains more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles, approximately 95 percent of which would violate the INF Treaty if Beijing were a signatory, according to US officials. But the INF Treaty prevents the US from placing short and intermediate range missiles on land near China as a deterrent.
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1. Does it look to anyone else like Trump may have been led into this pullout by Putin? Hard to say for sure, given the erratic character of some of his advisors. But it looks like the US got Russia out of a treaty that was limiting Putin's arsenal.
2. One of my first concerns when I heard of this pull out was that it comes at a moment when China (our most important global competitor) and Russia are working ever more closely together to limit/contest or otherwise change the rules of the liberal international order constructed by the US after WWII. Is this just another misstep or could one argue that there is a different long game here, maybe which exiting the INF Treaty leaves the US free to install intermediate missiles in SK and Japan. Would they allow that?
All I see in this move is loss, not gain.
World War 3: Russia warns US of 'NEW ERA' after Trump scraps INF nuclear treaty
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1082308/world-war-3-russia-us-cold-war-inf-treaty-nuclear-trump-putin
Moscow issued its latest warning amid fears the US President’s decision would bring the world closer to a Cold War and allow a build-up of intermediate-range nuclear weapons on their Eastern flank. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: ”I don't think we're talking about the development of a Cold War. “A new era has begun." Alarm spread through Europe after the announcement on Friday that Donald Trump had abandoned the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
'Huge mistake': Fears of arms race as US, Russia suspend INF pact. Analysts say demise of arms control treaty offers US little strategic benefit, pushes world 'closer to a nuclear war'.3 Feb 2019.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/mistake-fears-arms-race-russia-suspend-inf-pact-190203152747235.html
The long-running dispute between Washington and Moscow came to a head on Friday when US President Donald Trump accused Russia of violating the 1987 bilateral treaty with "impunity", and announced his government was suspending its obligations under the landmark pact.
Pledging to "move forward" with its own military response options, Trump said the US will withdraw from the accord in six months unless Moscow destroyed land-based missiles allegedly deployed in violation of the treaty.
In a tit-for-tat move on Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was also suspending Moscow's participation in the agreement. ...
The reciprocal moves effectively terminate a pact regarded as one of the most important safeguards against nuclear war....
Analysts said Trump's decision to scrap the pact leaves Russia free to shape the military balance in Europe.
The strategic advantages for the US, however, were less clear, they said....
"Let's be clear - the Russians were cheating," said Tom Nichols, a US-based defence analyst. "It was a provocation to menace the Europeans and to see if they could bait the Americans into walking away."
The US response only showed how "confused" Washington's nuclear arms policy was, he said. . . .
Carl Bildt, a co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, agreed. The INF Treaty's demise will allow Russia to deploy its Kalibr cruise missiles with a range of 1,500km from ground launchers, he said in a Twitter post on Friday.
"This would quickly cover all of Europe with an additional threat," he said....
China's nuclear missile arsenal
The "real reason" for the US pullout, according to Fitzpatrick, the non-proliferation expert, was Washington's concern over China's buildup of intermediate-range missiles in the Western Pacific.
China's inventory contains more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles, approximately 95 percent of which would violate the INF Treaty if Beijing were a signatory, according to US officials. But the INF Treaty prevents the US from placing short and intermediate range missiles on land near China as a deterrent.
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![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
