Nukes--India Pakistan, China, and Global Warming

[Bengalzona]

For one of the most militarized and contested areas in the world surrounded by three nuclear powers, it is amazing how little most people in America know or care about Kashmir. And those who do know something about it generally tend to just to dismiss concerns of potential war there by saying "But it's been like that for decades".

So, here are a few facts about the area where our first true nuclear war is most likely to erupt.

Kashmir is an area northwest of India (or in northwestern India, depending upon who you talk to). Kashmir is a fertile valley with many mineral resources. The area has been highly desired by many powers for decades. It is bordered by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, all of whom have made claims on parts or all of the area. Currently, India holds 43% of the land and 70% of the population in the area. Pakistan has 37% of the land and China has 20%. The population is predominantly Muslim. However, the population has never felt strong ties with Pakistan and only marginal ties with India. Generally, they would like to be independent of all of their neighbors.

For historical reference, Pakistan used to be part of India and India used to be part of the British Empire. After World War II, Britain decided to divest itself of most of its overseas colonies. Due to the fact that India's population was a primarily mix of Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims, the British feared that independence could create an immediate war between the Hindu and Muslim populations in an ensuing struggle for dominance. In an effort to avoid this, the British devised the Partition Plan: a new nation of Pakistan would be formed from the predominantly Muslim districts to the west (and an area to the east known as East Pakistan back then, Bangladesh later) and India would comprise the remaining territory. Like most British plans for territories they were evacuating, it looked well and good on paper in offices in London. The reality was far different. If you saw the movie "Gandhi", you have an idea of what happened. When the "partition" took place, there were mass emigrations of millions of religious minorities from the areas in addition to violence and massacres. You got to hand it to the Brits, they sure know how to leave behind a mess when they leave a place!

And to demonstrate just how adept the Brits are at leaving a mess, they left with the Kashmir question unanswered. The population was majority Muslim. But they did not want to be part of Pakistan (they didn't like the secular-type aspects of the new Paki government). They wanted to be an independent state. Both Pakistan and India wanted the Kashmir area. Pakistan sent irregulars to intimidate the Kashmiris into joining Pakistan. The Kashmiris appealed to India which agreed to help if Kashmir would accede to India. The Kashmiris reluctantly agreed and India sent in troops to chase the Paki irregulars out.

It would have been nice if that was the end of the story. But, obviously, it is not. Pakistan and India would fight wars over the area in 1948, 1965 and 1999. China also initiated a claim on part of the area in the 1950's and would fight a war with India over it in 1962. As it stand now, Pakistan controls the northern portion of Kashmir, India the southern and central portion and China the northeast portion. If you examine the dates each of these nations developed their initial nuclear weapons (China - 1962, India - 1974, and Pakistan - 1998) you can see the relationship between the conflicts and the nuclear proliferation in the area. China and India have both developed fusion weapons. The Pakis only have fission weapons at this point. India and Pakistan are each believed to maintain an arsenal of 100 to 150 warheads, all in the 20 to 40 kiloton range. China is believed to have an arsenal of approximately 250 warheads of from 1 to 4 megatons each. India and Pakistan maintain short-range land-based ballistic missile delivery systems, while China maintains an assortment of land-based and sea-based long-range ballistic missile systems. Note: All of these nuclear weapons combined are but a fraction of the stockpiles of either the United States or Russia, particularly in terms of the potential yields (a single Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine carries 24 Trident II ballistic missiles, each with 12 independent re-entry warheads yielding in the 0.5 to 0.75 mt range... that's 288 such warheads! We have 14 of these submarines.).

As you can see, India and Pakistans' nuclear arsenals are somewhat small and limited (enough to cripple each other and make China angry, but not a real threat to the United States). This is one of the reasons America ignores the region and things that go on there. Technically, we ought to be friends with India. But because we want to be friends with the Saudis and their Muslim buddies, we have elected to be friends with Pakistan instead (as much as one can be friends with the Pakis). The war in Afghanistan entrenched us in that position. China has warmed up to India in recent years. Their situation in the Kashmir is pretty stabilized (China is happy with controlling the area they control and India is happy to leave them alone). With 13 neighboring nations, 3 of which are also nuclear powers, China has other concerns than trying to bully India anymore or making territorial gains (at least land-based anyway). The current U.S. trade war has sent China to India and Russia to do additional business, which has strengthened ties between these countries (nice move, Trump).

So, the issue here is really between Pakistan and India. Apparently, Pakistan (probably through a terrorist group) initiated an attack which killed 40 Indian soldiers. India responded with air strikes which killed 300 Pakis. Pakistan shot down a couple of Indian fighters (F-16's versus Mig-21's, WTF?!?! They only shot down two?!?!). Apparently, as of tonight, Pakistan returned the downed Indian pilot they captured.

So where does this go from here?

The ball is really in Pakistan's court at this time. Considering that their initial attack was small and limited, I'm willing to bet they either let this die down or respond to the air strikes in some limited fashion (i.e. I don't think they are ready to fully go to war again at this point).