04-19-2019, 11:24 PM
Non-pass rushing LBs almost always drop. Given the choice between a DE and a LB, a lot of teams struggle with taking a player who doesn't get after the QB.
Roquan Smith was considered one of the best LB prospects in a generation and he still wasn't taken in the top 5. NFL.com rated Smith a half point higher than White (6.74 vs 6.25) and he would have been the top rated player in the draft this year (Quinnen Williams is the highest rated player by NFL.com at 6.70).
That may be a testament to how strong last year's class was, but there were several players with worse grades drafted ahead of Smith (everyone drafted before him except Darnold, Chubb and Barkley were rated lower than him).
It may have also been a matter of need intersecting value. Maybe the first 7 teams didn't need a LB.
But considering 3 of the choices were QBs, and there are just as many teams this year that are QB needy, I think White has a fairly good chance of dropping to us.
This year, White is the 12th ranked player by NFL.com, so he would be being drafted ahead of higher rated players if he isn't there at 11, which may end up being pretty nice for us, if it means a player like Ed Oliver falls into our laps.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects
Given the choice between an elite LB and an elite DT, most teams would take the DT, right?
Tremaine Edmunds had a similar drop, down to 16. Not many people were projecting he fall out of the top 12 leading up to the draft.
Going back through the last 10-15 NFL drafts, there just haven't been too many off ball LBs that go in the top 10. Now, that may be because there were none rated that highly. It's hard to say where C.J. Mosely and Ryan Shazier were rated at the time they were drafted, same with Jarvis Jones. But I believe I recall each one taking a relative fall, even if it was just 3 or 4 picks.
I am going into the draft hoping that White makes it to us. That said, there is a precedent for elite off ball LBs being taken in the latter half of the top 10 (Kuechly at #9, R. Smith at #8, McClain #8, River #9, Hawk #5, Sims #9), but I think this is a very common practice around these boards every year.
We convince ourselves that the player we want will be long gone by the time our pick comes around. I remember when we were absolutely convinced DeCastro would be taken 5 picks before our #17 pick in 2012, but we ended up having the opportunity (and passed) to draft him in the 20s!
I thought the same thing about Johnathan Allen in 2017 (who we also passed on), Darqueze Dennard in 2014, Dez Bryant (again, we passed) in 2010.
When you want a player, you assume everyone else wants them too! (which, to be fair, sometimes they do. Sedrick Ellis in 2008...
) . But I'm not gonna do that this year. I'm all in on White being our pick :) .
The nice thing is that, even if he doesn't fall (which I hope he does), we will almost certainly be able to draft Bush (because 2 off ball LBs in the top 10 is virtually unheard of in recent NFL draft history).
Roquan Smith was considered one of the best LB prospects in a generation and he still wasn't taken in the top 5. NFL.com rated Smith a half point higher than White (6.74 vs 6.25) and he would have been the top rated player in the draft this year (Quinnen Williams is the highest rated player by NFL.com at 6.70).
That may be a testament to how strong last year's class was, but there were several players with worse grades drafted ahead of Smith (everyone drafted before him except Darnold, Chubb and Barkley were rated lower than him).
It may have also been a matter of need intersecting value. Maybe the first 7 teams didn't need a LB.
But considering 3 of the choices were QBs, and there are just as many teams this year that are QB needy, I think White has a fairly good chance of dropping to us.
This year, White is the 12th ranked player by NFL.com, so he would be being drafted ahead of higher rated players if he isn't there at 11, which may end up being pretty nice for us, if it means a player like Ed Oliver falls into our laps.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects
Given the choice between an elite LB and an elite DT, most teams would take the DT, right?
Tremaine Edmunds had a similar drop, down to 16. Not many people were projecting he fall out of the top 12 leading up to the draft.
Going back through the last 10-15 NFL drafts, there just haven't been too many off ball LBs that go in the top 10. Now, that may be because there were none rated that highly. It's hard to say where C.J. Mosely and Ryan Shazier were rated at the time they were drafted, same with Jarvis Jones. But I believe I recall each one taking a relative fall, even if it was just 3 or 4 picks.
I am going into the draft hoping that White makes it to us. That said, there is a precedent for elite off ball LBs being taken in the latter half of the top 10 (Kuechly at #9, R. Smith at #8, McClain #8, River #9, Hawk #5, Sims #9), but I think this is a very common practice around these boards every year.
We convince ourselves that the player we want will be long gone by the time our pick comes around. I remember when we were absolutely convinced DeCastro would be taken 5 picks before our #17 pick in 2012, but we ended up having the opportunity (and passed) to draft him in the 20s!
I thought the same thing about Johnathan Allen in 2017 (who we also passed on), Darqueze Dennard in 2014, Dez Bryant (again, we passed) in 2010.
When you want a player, you assume everyone else wants them too! (which, to be fair, sometimes they do. Sedrick Ellis in 2008...
) . But I'm not gonna do that this year. I'm all in on White being our pick :) .The nice thing is that, even if he doesn't fall (which I hope he does), we will almost certainly be able to draft Bush (because 2 off ball LBs in the top 10 is virtually unheard of in recent NFL draft history).
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
