06-05-2019, 08:26 AM
(06-04-2019, 11:23 PM)Benton Wrote: I'll be shocked if it isn't biden.
He's the 'old white guy' that 80 percent of the country is comfortable voting for. He's one of the most moderate candidates. He's a white guy. He's straight. He was part of a generally liked (by Dems and moderates anyway) administration. And with the groping thing, he should pull in a few extra voters, while still locking down the female vote because of his likely opponent.
All of what you say here is true, but here is where I think it won't be Biden. The country doesn't want what we have had for decades. They want something different. This is why there were so many Obama-Trump voters. This is why Trump was appealing to the non-racists that supported him. Clinton didn't turn out Democratic voters in the general because she didn't excite them. Biden is another Clinton. He is more of the same establishment that many Democrats are not at all happy with right now.
Out of everyone on the board, I'm willing to bet that I am involved more in the Democratic party than anyone else, talking regularly with my local chairs, state chair, other officers and members as I handle some communications duties for our local committee. I cannot name anyone active in the party that is pulling for Biden right now. Granted, this is all anecdotal, but that is what I am hearing. The biggest reason he is polling at the top is name recognition. He and Sanders benefit from 100% name recognition, which is really the reason why they lead the pack. That is the game right now. The reason Mayor Pete is up there behind Harris and Warren? He ran for DNC chair after 2016 and was name dropped by Obama as a rising star in the party in 2017. So to insiders, he is well known.
Once the field starts to narrow and people start to get a feel for what these candidates stand for, I would expect to see the lead Biden holds, and Sanders for that matter, narrow or disappear. We are over a year from the convention, eight months from the Iowa caucuses that kick things off. As other candidates start to become more known and people learn what they are about, this field will shift drastically. This time in 2007, Clinton was polling better than Biden is right now. A lot can change between now and the convention.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
