Whistle-Blower’s Complaint Is Said to Involve Multiple Acts by Trump

[Dill]

(09-24-2019, 03:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: This is my hot take:
I think the likelihood that this will impact Joe Biden's candidacy for President is far greater than the likelihood that this will impact Donald Trump's candidacy for re-election.

The left, generally speaking, is far less tolerant of corruption or scandal than the right is. And I think even the appearance of a quid pro quo to facilitate a form of nepotism by a vice president is a really bad look for a Democrat. And if he wanted that prosecutor fired to protect his son from investigation, that will not be viewed favorably by the left.

That said, I am not sure anything will happen unless we get the actual details of either what Biden did or did not do to get his son that job (or if there was a significant conflict of interest that had an effect on the anti-corruption measures taken in Ukraine created by Hunter's presence in the area) or if the prosecutor even intended to investigate Hunter in any way. In addition, In order for Trump to suffer any repercussions, the details on what Trump did and did not say or promise or threaten in order to get someone to look into the Bidens or what was actually said during that phone call need to be released.

At the end of the day, I expect this to just fade away into the background just like every single other scandalous action by this president does. He'll say or do something else in the next few days and we'll talk about that for a week and the cycle will continue. When you never have time to stew in one scandal before the next arrives, it's hard for any one scandal to have any real impact, unfortunately...

So far, the Biden "scandal' is looking like Benghazi without a body count--i.e., nothing there. Even the IMF was demanding the firing of Shokin. Biden was just doing his job, publicly stating the US position on a public, international matter.  To be comparable to Trump's case, we would have to learn that Biden was secretly working behind the scenes to keep Shokin in office to help his son.

You are right that "the left" holds its representatives to a higher standard. But even if something implicates Biden in an impropriety, it won't matter much. The gaff machine will drop steadily in the polls before Warren and Bernie and "Boot," scandal or no.

However, I don't think this latest violation of Trump's presidential oath will fade into the background. We may think that previous scandals have, but all haven't. Trump's finances are still under investigation. Congress will eventually get his tax returns. The obstruction charges are still important to Congressional Dems. This new scandal is somewhat different than previous ones, in that it is simpler, less legally complex. But it is also of a piece with the others, flowing as it does from both disregard and ignorance of norms and laws applying to the presidency.

Also, repeated use of the same Cohn-style, ad hoc attack-defense has made Trump less believable to a growing fraction of his base. Rushing to construct a "Biden-did-the-exact-same-thing-and-did-it first" narrative, another mirror-image counter charge defended on a different premise each day, becomes dimly recognizable as "what Trump does"--a knee jerk tactic with the WH staff and Fox Friends all behind it at once, people who praise the appointment of "constitutional judges."

We may see renewed emphasis on previous mirror-image attack-defenses, e.g., more demands to get to the bottom of the Russia investigation, presented as Obama abusing his powers exactly as Trump is now. ("Subpoena Obama!" demands Graham.) But the effect will be more strident and desperate than effective.  My guess is Trump, under more and more pressure by the month and surrounded by people who cannot give him good advice without losing their jobs, will behave ever more erratically, with crazy tweets and contradictory pronouncements on policy--especially on weighty matters of state like China and Iran.

So to conclude, I would say this is costing Trump votes. And will continue to do so. It is now not clear at all that impeachment will hurt him more than he hurts himself. Remember this is not the last scandal.  Oil and consumer prices rising, war pending in the Gulf, more to come. . . .