Imho, here's the scary thing.

[hollodero]

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: I can, however, offer what I think a more inclusive assessment of the current conjuncture, marking "test balloons" which have failed.

Thanks, you got me.
At this point, let me apologize for not addressing and quoting everything you said. Doesn't mean I do not appreciate the parts I do not quote. Just, length.

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Start with the fact that Anti-Trumpers have always been the majority of voters, and their numbers are increasing.

Are they though? I mean, yes, they are the majority. And if you would actually not use the travesty of a fair election that is the elector... but ok, I do not want to open that barrel again. Just, a majority means little. And are their numbers really increasing? Because every time I catch an approval poll, Trump is around 40. He was in the beginning, he is now, and after the 9th breaking news that he is now at 38% and everything falls apart now I kind of lost faith in that. He seems steady to me, from start to now, and that was enough the last time around.

I mean, maybe there is an increase. But what exactly proves that?

- And then I see (as do you) some kind of a bigger issue, and it seems like another one that just fell into Trump's lap without much genius of his own. It's voter disenfranchisement.
And sure that starts with voting on a workday and yet having these long lines everywhere, that simple visual test alone is kind of absurd to European eyes. That is obviously, willfully or not (but probably not not) designed to keep the working poor away. And then there is some more sophisticated stuff to suppress certain votes, you sure know more about it than me.

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Then the 2018 elections, which saw the House return to the Dems.

Sure. But the senate is the chamber that is more relevant. To put it bluntly, the House and all their investigations can be screwed over, and McConnell does just that. Having a senate without a GOP majority seems way tougher to come by. Because you have two senators per state and there is that damn barrel again. But it seems somewhat likely the GOP majority is there to stay.

And to conclude, I might sound like a lunatic and would have called myself that four years ago, but I do not see fair elections as a guarantee. Manipulations happen in other countries, they can be pulled off, and your system is, honestly, an awful mess as it is and likely quite susceptible. And it was already attacked by Russians. Most likely in all 50 states. You are all astonishingly chill about that one.

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Also, cracks within Trumpdom--the recent Christianity Today editorial

Yeah, there's that. Also, 200 evangelical leaders already pushed back. Now I do not know what 200 evangelical leaders' voices are worth, but I do get that Christianity Today reaches around 260.000 readers, and that is not that awfully much. Sure, it might be a crack, but as of now it might just be a detail that just gets major attention through false hope.

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Trump support in the military is decreasing in small increments

Good. I get the reasons, and these seem like considerations that might occur. I wonder though if a lifelong republican military vet really could ever not be a lifelong republican. That seems a step that is just too steep for many.
I don't know. I don't want to be just negative, but I can see some staying home, but that's that. Sure, my assertion stems from very little observation from very far away and means nothing. But then again, Trump's approval is stuck at 40 and there's a reason for that.
And military leadership? They can be fired. I don't see any meaningful resistance coming from that corner (and at least in some sense, thankfully so).

(12-23-2019, 04:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Finally, and this relates more to the future, the increase of Trump's power increases his accountability and that of his GOP supporters in ways that stress their capacity to construct alternative narratives to the "Fake news" accepted by the rest of the world. GOP leaders do public about-faces to support conspiracy theories and defend erratic, contradictory WH pronouncements. The exhausting, non-stop Benghazi-like scandals involving the FISA warrants, the Bidens, and Ukraine are always just days away from the revelation which will finally take down the criminal Dem/Obama/Hillary party and confirm the Trump base's decision to ignore the "Fake news." The constant postponement may foster exhaustion and disinterest in "both sides," but in the long run, it creates a desire for stability, for emotionally steady political leaders whose public statements are filtered through ethical norms and who respect their own intel services--not the bombast of demagogues. 

I get what you're saying. And I totally disagree. Meaning, I really do not see it like an increasing challenge at all. On the contrary, it seems to get easier by the day. Some years earlier, one could see folks actually stumbling to get facts and Trump together. Right now, they (meaning the GOP politicians and pundits) just don't do that any more. They just say whatever and don't care about a bewildered interviewer or a bewildered half of the public. As if they had noticed they don't have to.

I don't see it getting harder at all. They could do that all day. McConnell as a stimulating intellectual challenge probably, the others possibly with the increasing sense that those who know better might just not matter. The sky is red! Doubters are biased! Message delivered. Next!

Why GOP supporters can go along with all their heart, that one is still one of the bigger conundrums for me. American tribalism is beyond anything I ever experienced here.