11-09-2020, 07:26 PM
(11-09-2020, 06:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All I said was that if a QB who is ranked 24th in the league and has a career winning percentage of .313 can win a Super Bowl then 95% of NFL QBs probably could also.
Quite a lot wrong with your thinking.
1.) He would need to be ranked 30th to meet your 95% mark. And that's assuming we're going to forget everything else about I'm about to say below.
2.) You can't use his current record when people are talking about the future. It's too small a sample size, with too poor of a roster, to apply that winning percentage to him alone. Until you see him play for years, with different players around him, it's not fair to attatch that to Joe Burrow's skill level.
3.) I don't know if this is a new concept to you, but people usually project rookies to improve. Shocking, I know. When you see a young player, in any sport, be it a rookie, or say a freshman, if they are able to contribute right away many start to project the down the road as being even better. It's true.
If you have a Freshman Center who averages 10 and 8 in basketball, you'll often find people say thinks like "This guy is going to be All-Conference in a few years." If you have a rookie WR who throws up a 800 yard 8 TD season, people will generally consider that a success. And going into the following years people may envision him getting even better.
So, when you only look at Joe Burrow's QB rating (24th), you're purposely leaving out a lot of other things. Like the fact he has one of the worst OL's in the NFL, or that he has no run game, or that he has no deep threat, or that he's got a bottom of the barrel tight end. OR THAT HE'S A ROOKIE!!!
If someone said that they think Joe Burrow can go to the Super Bowl this year, then I'd be right with you. I'd be point out those same stats. But when they're talking about down the road, only an idiot ignores all of the above. You can look at the big picture and project that there's a very good chance that this kid will be a top 10 QB down the line. But, for whatever reason, you choose not to do that.
