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Things Zac Taylor knew
#38
(11-23-2020, 10:35 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: That's true. There are cumulative injuries and there are, for lack of a better term, "freak injuries."

The thing about freak injuries is that they have a chance of occurring on every play. It's usually very small. Let's say there's a 0.0001% chance of a freak injury on any given passing play. Having an awful offensive line would increase that chance and having the other factors I mentioned (like having no running game at all) could increase that chance a bit more.

When you call over 400 passing plays in the first 10 games of a season, you are riding those odds every single play.


So for the first 399 plays, the bad Oline+no run game+rookies don't get calls from refs+defensive players like to teach rookies a lesson chance of having a freak accident didn't occur.

But when you roll a dice over and over and over again, eventually you're going to roll the number you've been fretting.

Do you know what I mean?

This bothers me in many aspects of life, as people commonly misunderstand how statistics and probability works.  You do realize that, using your .0001% figure, for every one of those 400 plays, the percentage chance would still be that .0001% right?  If you were to coach with that mentality, you're playing to not lose, which I believe is one of those lies we like to say Zac's doing.  But of course, it must fit our agenda right?
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Messages In This Thread
Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 09:55 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Bengals731 - 11-23-2020, 09:59 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:00 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - ochocincos - 11-23-2020, 10:48 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - RunKijanaRun - 11-23-2020, 10:54 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - BleedOnB - 11-23-2020, 10:28 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 10:30 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:35 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - fredtoast - 11-23-2020, 10:46 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 10:49 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Sled21 - 11-23-2020, 10:54 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 10:59 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Sled21 - 11-23-2020, 11:01 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:49 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - fredtoast - 11-23-2020, 10:53 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:59 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 11:27 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 10:48 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:54 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 11:03 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 11:08 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 11:18 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Wes Mantooth - 11-23-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 12:12 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Wes Mantooth - 11-23-2020, 12:47 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - bengalfan74 - 11-23-2020, 12:56 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 01:07 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:10 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 12:12 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:21 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 12:26 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:31 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 12:35 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:38 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - wildcatnku24 - 11-23-2020, 11:22 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - THE Bigzoman - 11-23-2020, 11:10 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Sled21 - 11-23-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 11:20 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - wildcatnku24 - 11-23-2020, 11:47 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:19 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - wildcatnku24 - 11-23-2020, 12:24 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:29 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - wildcatnku24 - 11-23-2020, 12:35 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 12:46 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - fredtoast - 11-23-2020, 10:34 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - CJD - 11-23-2020, 10:37 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - THE Bigzoman - 11-23-2020, 11:01 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - fredtoast - 11-23-2020, 11:20 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - wildcatnku24 - 11-23-2020, 11:28 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Sled21 - 11-23-2020, 11:38 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - impactplaya - 11-23-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - fredtoast - 11-23-2020, 10:51 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - thillan - 11-23-2020, 12:00 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Interceptor - 11-23-2020, 10:53 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Bengalitis - 11-23-2020, 10:55 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Interceptor - 11-23-2020, 11:27 AM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - Tomkat - 11-23-2020, 12:32 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - bengalfan74 - 11-23-2020, 12:36 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 12:38 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - bengalfan74 - 11-23-2020, 12:46 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 01:04 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - sonofstat - 11-23-2020, 01:22 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - PhilHos - 11-23-2020, 01:48 PM
RE: Things Zac Taylor knew - BengalChris - 11-23-2020, 04:52 PM

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