12-04-2020, 08:02 PM
(12-04-2020, 07:27 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: Butting my head into a convo and haven't read most of this thread, which I know is risky, but this was a good point to mention some things I wanted to mention.
I know you know a great deal about the NFL, but you often really underestimate the market value of many of our players. So you're saying Bobby Hart would be overpaid at 6.9M if he moved into RG? You know what other NFL interior lineman make?
Zach Fulton of the Texans makes 7M AAV. You're really so dead sure that Hart would be a lesser guard than Zach Fulton?
Our own Trey Hopkins makes about 6.8. Are they that drastically different? (Imagining Hart as a RG, not RT).
James Carpenter of Atl makes about 5.25. That's less than Hart but I'd venture to say Hart as a guard, given that his run blocking is better than his pass blocking, would be a better guard than James Carpenter.
You also sometimes underestimate what dead cap does to a roster. I know Hart's dead cap would only be 1 million, but that means unless you can find a guard obviously better than Hart for 5.9M it doesn't make sense to cut him (in the scenario w/ Sewell you mention; tackles are a different market). And looking at the examples above, I don't know that you can. I know you're adding that to the money saved by cutting Uzomah, but you can't play that game because then we need another TE. We need a lot of things in fact. So when it comes to finding the WR or D-lineman we need, you can't turn around and say use the money saved by cutting Uzomah. You've already used it.
And then let's look at Uzomah. Leon Hall came back from two achilles tears, so i'm not worried about that. Remember when we re-upped Uzomah, the Bills came in and paid Tyler Kroft - that's right, Tyler frickin' Kroft - roughly the same money. His 2020 cap hit with the Bills is just a hair over 5.44M. Even if you cut Uzomah, leaving another 1M on the cap, and signed Kroft at what the (very successful, by the way) Bills are paying him, you'd then be paying a total of 6.44M (5.44 for Kroft plus the 1M you still owe Uzomah) for Tyler Kroft! You really like that deal? And if your idea is that you'll go out and find a TE clearly better than Uzomah for less than 5M (because remember you're paying him 1M regardless), good luck. At best you'd just end up with an empty shell game.
I also understand that you mean to throw that 5M back in the pot and use it wherever, not necessarily on a TE, but even that being the case you still need to go through thought experiments like this. I'm sure you don't want Tyler Kroft, but my point is that's what the market will bear if you're out there trying to spend 5M or so on a TE.
And now let's look at what sort of NFL TE you get for the 3 million bucks you want to pay Uzomah. Per spotrac.com, it's somebody like Josh Hill, who has all of 45 yards on 7 receptions this year, or Lee Smith, who has, I kid you not, 4 whole yards on 2 receptions. And actually 4M because you're already paying Uzomah 1m. You're not getting C.J. Uzomah for 3M my friend.
Maybe you want to cut a bunch of players to wad the money together to pay a top flight CB or something, but remember you still then have to pay somebody to give you production at the TE and OL spots you just cut, and draft picks can't do it all, and you just handicapped yourself with 2M of dead cap (Hart and Uzomah 1M each).
This is why we don't cut as many players each year as fans want us to. Don't underestimate how hard it is to replace that production.
Sorry this post is so long but yours are always long as hell too! :)
You make a lot of good points, and they're well thought out. You've even hit on some things that I would have replied with (You're right, I don't want Tyler Kroft, I do want the money thrown back into the pool for bigger signing, etc.)
Personally, I think Bobby Hart is overpaid no matter where you put him. If we're capping the RG position at strictly his replacement value, I'd rather taking my chances on a John Miller, or XSF, or someone like that at 4 mil and under.
But what I'm calling for for that position especially (Guard) is for the team to go out and sign two legitimate starters. Take a lot of the savings I'm calling for, combine them with our already decent amount of cap space, and be agrressive with this position. No more patching, or hoping or any of that. Put Sewell on one end, Jonah on the other, and get yourself two decent guards. And just be done with it.
As far as TE's, that was one of the other positions I said to target in free agency (the other was LB). This team needs a legitimate TE1. I don't think Sample ever can be that. I doubted Uzomah could before the injury, and now I'm even less sure.
Let's say we don't want to, or simply can't, spend much more on TE due to spending elsewhere. What about calling up the Bucs and making a play at Brate or Howard? Both are priced very similarly to Uzomah and neither are coming off an achilies. Both have proven capable of being more producive and both are under 30. And I'm guessing you might be able to swing one for around a 5th round pick.
Look at the market our own Tyler Eifert created. 2 years 9.5 mil. What about a similarly priced vet like that? What about just drafting a TE and rounds 3 or 4 and rolling with that? Put the 6 mil elsewhere. Would we really be that worse off minus a CJ Uzomah?
I just think this team still needs a lot of new faces and energy. The Bobby Hart's of the world need to hit the road. And I think with the cap projected to go down that you'll see a rash of cuts you normally wouldn't see, and I'd expect prices, as a whole, to be lower than in typical years.
More than anything, I just want to be creative. I want to be aggressive. Bobby Hart's and CJ Uzomah's aren't going to put you over the hump. Take the savings and bring in some real bonafied players at other positions. If that means we may have to play a Mike Daniels type of signing over a Geno Atkins, or we keep Mackenzie Alexander rather than WJIII then so be it.
I just want a solidified OL without any questions, and I want to see efforts made to reinvent this roster. I'm tired of guys like Hart and Uzomah just riding out their entire contracts just because they're already here. Take some chances.
