12-10-2020, 09:25 PM
I see this statistic referenced all of the time on here. "The Bengals have (X amount of games) of one score losses".
I've seen people claim Mike Brown will look at the fact that we lost however many games by a TD or less, and use that to believe we are close. I've seen many fans do they same.
People do realize most NFL games are decided by a score or less, right? That's why the overwhelming majority of spreads are 7 and under. If Vegas was setting game lines at -3 and -4 all of the time, people would figure how to explit the shit out of that system if the majority of games were decided by 9 or more. It's simple math.
Don't believe me? Take a look at these one score games from just last week:
Saints 21 - Falcons 16
Lions 34 - Bears 30
Browns 41 - Titans 35
Vikings 27 - Jags 24
Raiders 31 - Jets 28
Colts 26 - Texans 20
Giants 17 -Seahwaks 12
Chiefs 22 - Broncos 16
Washington 23 - Steelers 17
Of the 15 games played, 9 of them were decided by 6 points or less. Only one game out of the 15 actually had a lopsided difference of more than 14 points.
That's kinda how this league works. More often than not, the losing team will have lost by a score or less. And even in games that start out with bigger leads you'll often see the losing team close the gap due to run offense meant to eat time (not to score points) and a defense that gives up tons of yards underneath, allowing teams to march down the field (Eat more clock.)
Fwiw, I always wonder if we give extra credit for losing close then why don't we deduct points for winning close? I mean, it has to work both ways, right?
Has anyone ever heard someone bemoan the fact their team only won by 7? Does anyone ever reference "Yeah, I know we finished 12-4 but 9 of those wins came by a score or less? Of course they don't. A win is a win. A loss is a loss.
I'm not pointing any of this out to be negative, or to talk even more shit about this team. It just drives me nuts when I hear this thinking used. Again, losing this way is commonplace. It doesn't mean we're any closer than any other 2 or 3 or 4 win team. Cuz I guarantee you they had a lot of close losses as well.
So, JN, can we please remove this logic from our discussions? Pretty please? If we can eliminate this and "this is AFC North football" then you'll save some of us from a lot of eye rolls.
I've seen people claim Mike Brown will look at the fact that we lost however many games by a TD or less, and use that to believe we are close. I've seen many fans do they same.
People do realize most NFL games are decided by a score or less, right? That's why the overwhelming majority of spreads are 7 and under. If Vegas was setting game lines at -3 and -4 all of the time, people would figure how to explit the shit out of that system if the majority of games were decided by 9 or more. It's simple math.
Don't believe me? Take a look at these one score games from just last week:
Saints 21 - Falcons 16
Lions 34 - Bears 30
Browns 41 - Titans 35
Vikings 27 - Jags 24
Raiders 31 - Jets 28
Colts 26 - Texans 20
Giants 17 -Seahwaks 12
Chiefs 22 - Broncos 16
Washington 23 - Steelers 17
Of the 15 games played, 9 of them were decided by 6 points or less. Only one game out of the 15 actually had a lopsided difference of more than 14 points.
That's kinda how this league works. More often than not, the losing team will have lost by a score or less. And even in games that start out with bigger leads you'll often see the losing team close the gap due to run offense meant to eat time (not to score points) and a defense that gives up tons of yards underneath, allowing teams to march down the field (Eat more clock.)
Fwiw, I always wonder if we give extra credit for losing close then why don't we deduct points for winning close? I mean, it has to work both ways, right?
Has anyone ever heard someone bemoan the fact their team only won by 7? Does anyone ever reference "Yeah, I know we finished 12-4 but 9 of those wins came by a score or less? Of course they don't. A win is a win. A loss is a loss.
I'm not pointing any of this out to be negative, or to talk even more shit about this team. It just drives me nuts when I hear this thinking used. Again, losing this way is commonplace. It doesn't mean we're any closer than any other 2 or 3 or 4 win team. Cuz I guarantee you they had a lot of close losses as well.
So, JN, can we please remove this logic from our discussions? Pretty please? If we can eliminate this and "this is AFC North football" then you'll save some of us from a lot of eye rolls.
