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Austin Promises Defense Will "Play Without Fear!"
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(01-25-2018, 02:47 AM)sloSTI Wrote: Since the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green Era commenced in 2011, the Bengals led at the half 59 times. They finished 44-14-1 in those games. That .754 record ranks 18th in the NFL over the span.

That came from a Paul Dehner article in the Enquirer a few weeks back.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/01/07/mike-brown-marvin-lewis-fact-fiction-cincinnati-bengals-lacking-halftime-adjustments/1007231001/

(01-25-2018, 03:01 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: This freaking post should be a sticky somewhere.

Since the bengals rank 6th overall in winning percentage since 2011 if they rank 18th (pretty much league average) in games where they led at halftime that would mean they would have to rank very near the top in winning percentage in games where they did not lead at halftime.

Since it seems like there would be more adjustments when not leading than when leading (not as many adjustments needed when things are working) this indicates that Marvin and his staff are very good at making halftime adjustments.

I don't have the numbers for trailing at halftime, but since good teams make adjustments all through the game instead of just at halftime I think it is better to look at all "come back" wins.

Since Dalton arrived the Bengals are 37-45-2 in games where the bengals have trailed.  That .452 winning percentage is 7th best in the league.   If you go all the way back to the beginning of the Marvin era the Bengals have a .372 winning percentage in games where they have trailed and that is only good enough for 15th in the league.  Pretty much dead on average.

Dehner's numbers don't prove what they claim to prove at all.  The elements of protecting a lead have very little to do with halftime adjustments because most teams don't make a lot of adjustments when leading.  Instead prtecting a lead in the second half has more to do with the ability to run the ball.  So dehner's numbers probabaly show that the bengals struggle to run the ball making it harder for them to protect a lead.

The one thing I know for sure is that you can not talk about "halftime adjustments" without looking at how many times a team won when NOT leading at halftime.  Adjustments are much more important when things are not working than when they are and you have a lead.
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RE: Austin Promises Defense Will "Play Without Fear!" - fredtoast - 01-25-2018, 10:12 AM

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