How bad was our 2018 Offensive line?

[PAjwPhilly]

(05-21-2019, 02:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: A success "rate" can not be inflated by a small sample size.

But it does not matter.  In 2018 the Bengals had 40 plays last year that were 3rd or 4th down with 1 or 2 yards to go were they ran the ball.  The league average was 42.4.  We converted 72.5 of those plays for first downs wich ranked 17th in the league.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&player_id_hint=&player_id_select=&player_id=&idx=&role=&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_location=&game_result=&game_day_of_week=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter%5B%5D=1&quarter%5B%5D=2&quarter%5B%5D=3&quarter%5B%5D=4&quarter%5B%5D=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down%5B%5D=3&down%5B%5D=4&yds_to_go_min=1&yds_to_go_max=2&yards_min=-99&yards_max=99&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_min=&field_pos_max_field=team&field_pos_max=&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_min=&end_field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_max=&type%5B%5D=PASS&type%5B%5D=RUSH&type%5B%5D=PUNT&type%5B%5D=KOFF&type%5B%5D=ONSD&type%5B%5D=FG&type%5B%5D=XP&type%5B%5D=2PCR&type%5B%5D=2PCP&is_complete=&is_sack=&include_kneels=&no_play=N&is_first_down=&is_turnover=&is_scoring=&turnover_type%5B%5D=interception&turnover_type%5B%5D=fumble&score_type%5B%5D=touchdown&score_type%5B%5D=field_goal&score_type%5B%5D=safety&margin_min=&margin_max=&rush_direction%5B%5D=LE&rush_direction%5B%5D=LT&rush_direction%5B%5D=LG&rush_direction%5B%5D=M&rush_direction%5B%5D=RG&rush_direction%5B%5D=RT&rush_direction%5B%5D=RE&pass_location%5B%5D=SL&pass_location%5B%5D=SM&pass_location%5B%5D=SR&pass_location%5B%5D=DL&pass_location%5B%5D=DM&pass_location%5B%5D=DR&order_by=yards


The Bengals also had 12 plays inside the opponents 2 yard line where they ran the ball.  The league average was 11.5.  In those siytuations only 3 teams converted a higher percentage than the Bengals 66.7.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&player_id_hint=&player_id_select=&player_id=&idx=&role=&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_location=&game_result=&game_day_of_week=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter%5B%5D=1&quarter%5B%5D=2&quarter%5B%5D=3&quarter%5B%5D=4&quarter%5B%5D=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down%5B%5D=0&down%5B%5D=1&down%5B%5D=2&down%5B%5D=3&down%5B%5D=4&yds_to_go_min=&yds_to_go_max=&yards_min=-99&yards_max=99&field_pos_min_field=opp&field_pos_min=2&field_pos_max_field=opp&field_pos_max=1&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_min=&end_field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_max=&type%5B%5D=RUSH&is_complete=&is_sack=&include_kneels=&no_play=N&is_first_down=&is_turnover=&is_scoring=&turnover_type%5B%5D=interception&turnover_type%5B%5D=fumble&score_type%5B%5D=touchdown&score_type%5B%5D=field_goal&score_type%5B%5D=safety&margin_min=&margin_max=&rush_direction%5B%5D=LE&rush_direction%5B%5D=LT&rush_direction%5B%5D=LG&rush_direction%5B%5D=M&rush_direction%5B%5D=RG&rush_direction%5B%5D=RT&rush_direction%5B%5D=RE&pass_location%5B%5D=SL&pass_location%5B%5D=SM&pass_location%5B%5D=SR&pass_location%5B%5D=DL&pass_location%5B%5D=DM&pass_location%5B%5D=DR&order_by=yards


Now there may be some overlap in these two sets of numbers, and the goal line stats counted conversions for firat down instead of TDs.  So the numbers may be off just a little.  But overall the Bengals were not horrible in short yardage situtions.

Yes it most certainly can and most certainly does.  For example...I flip a coin twice. I get heads and heads. Thus, I have a 100% heads rate.  If I increase the sample size to say 1,000... I wont see a 100% heads rate. 

However... you are correct, it didn't matter. Our sample size was comparable to the rest of the NFL (which I was suggesting it might have been well below average). Also those links are huge but I am going to check them out.  Why didn't our coaches recognize this and just go for it on 4th down if our line was on a hot-streak??

72.5% was 19th in the league... why does this chart have "games played" by some teams at 13, 14, 15, & 16? Do they not have data for games (that isn't professional)? Also the Giants lead the league in this stat with 90% (30 total plays but only 13 games). Missing data kinda makes this unusable to me. But what do I matter, lol...