Forecasting 2020

[BURROWorBUST]

This thread was inspired by the thread on realistic expectations for 2020. I started writing a comment on that thread, but it got so long that I decided just to start this one.

To forecast 2020, I think we need to

1. diagnose what went wrong or wasn't good enough in 2019,
2. evaluate what the front office and coaches did to address those problems, and
3. base our forecast off of that.

DIAGNOSIS: Defense

On defense, since we couldn't stop anybody, we need to ask why?

Secondary - decent coverage at times, but nobody could tackle. We suffered very weak run support, particularly on the perimeter (remember San Fran & Pittsburgh game 1?)

LBs - enough said. Pratt took awhile to adjust, and everybody else sucked. We gave up hope on Brown and cut him. The best we could bring in was Reynolds and Sheldon. Again,

In combination, the weak tackling by the secondary and the LBs, and the lack of mobility and cover ability by the LBs meant that we got kiledl on perimeter runs and the short - intermediate passing game. We couldn't stop teams from getting first downs.

DLine - As good as they are, as as good as they showed up against Seattle, they went through a spell where they couldn't generate any pressure on the QB. Our poor LB did them no favors, either.

DIAGNOSIS: Offense


Oline - The Oline struggled at the beginning of the year. Especially, on the left (blind) side, and the right side wasn't much better. It got better, but it still wasn't good enough.

WRs - AJ Green didn't play a single snap, and we can't underestimate what his absence meant to this offense. It certainly didn't help our passing game.

QB -As much blame as Dalton gets, he didn't have as much to work with, and he hasn't had as much to work as he did in 2015. That said, even recognizing the various things that haven't helped, I think it's fair to say that his play progressively deteriorated every year since.

TREATMENT: Defense

In response to this, the team cut its weakest tackler in the secondary, Dre K. And cut a guy (Dennard) who was good at what he did (slot corner), but didn't want to do it. We brought in Waynes, who is a much better tackler than Dre, and we brought in Alexander, who is probably as good as Dennard was.

Secondary – We signed Von Bell, who can tackle and cover better than Shawn Williams. As a threesome, Waynes, Alexander, and Bell really improved our ability to defend the perimeter. We'll see how well they can do in coverage. Overall, it's a big improvement in terms of tackling and playmaking.

LBs - We, signed Josh Bynes as a guy who can play the middle at LB, and who is a damn good tackler. In the draft, we basically gave our LB room a total overhaul. Everyone we drafted here can cover, and everyone we draft here can tackle. Logan is a more athletic and mobile LB than alot of people give him credit for, and Davis-Gaither and Bailey are going to strengthen our ability to hold the perimeter.

DLine - All of our LBs will benefit from the signing of DJ Reader. They'll be able to play cleaner, because he eats so many blockers. He should also help us generate more pass rush.

TREATMENT: Offense

OLine, I don't think it's totally fair that we didn't do anything to address the woes of the Oline, Jonah Williams is coming back, people. We haver to consider that as an addition. For al intents and purposes, he was not here in 2019. Xavier S'ua-Filo is an upgrade at guard, and I am cautiously optimistic that Adiniji will surprise some people. So, we have 3 new players, at least two of whom will probably start and play better than the guys who played their position did last year. Also, I think the coaches are praying that the improvement we saw late in the season will continue into 2020.

WRs - We're also getting AJ back, and we added Tee Higgins. Together with Boyd, Ross, and Tate, they make our WR corps one of the top groups in the league. Mixon, Gio, Williams, Anderson, Patrick, Perine, and Whaley are also an impressive group of RBs. I know we'll only keep 3-4 on the roster, and 1 on PS, but it's going to be good competition there.

QB - Finally, we drafted a QB with amazing pocket presence and accuracy, highly advanced processing (pre-snap and post-snap) skills, mobility and play-making ability, and a strong enough arm to have had the best season of any QB in the history of college football. AND he he's a leader who hates to lose.

FORECAST

I think we will see:

1. Better tacking from the secondary
2. Better tackling, mobility, and pass coverage from LBs
3. Improve Dline to stop the run and pressure QBs
4. Improved blocking for pass pro and ground game
5. 2 new WRs who can run routes and offer vertical threat
6. A new QB with better pocket presence, more mobility, greater accuracy in delivering the ball, and who will make better decisions on where the ball should go

If all 6 of those things pan out, I think we will win 10 or more games this year. I won't be disappointed if we don't win the division this year. I think it's easily the toughest division in the NFL right now. Alot of things would have to go right, but I think we could.