05-29-2020, 04:29 PM
(05-29-2020, 03:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So I went back 20 years and found 128 4th and EXACTLY 15 yards. The leaguewide conversion rate was 24%, but still no proof that great teams would convert more than poor teams. Only THREE QBs converted more than one 4th and 15 over the last 20 years. . . Aaron Brooks, Matt Cassel, and ANDY DALTON
Once again, a lot wrong with this.
1.) How many of these 4th and 15's were in actuality longer conversation attempts?
Examples:
-4th 15 and from the 30 yard line. Down more than 3. Less than 10 secs left, no timeouts. Teams throws to the endzone incomplete. Statistics shows an uncessful 4th and 15, yet in an entirely different situation (They actually needed 30 yards not the 15 needed in this new rule)
-4th and 15 from your own 40. Down by 3 or less. Time running out. You need to get into field goal range. Pass falls incomplete at the 35 yard line. Down and distance was 4th and 15. Actual distance needed and attempted was 25.
-4th and 15 from your side of the field. Time for one Hail Mary. Your QB chucks up a 60 yard incompletion. Your statistics say you needed 15 yard for the first down. Reality said it was actually 4th and 60.
2.) I brought up the untimed aspect of the proposed rule, and you chose to ignore it.
How many of these 4th 15 attempts came on plays where time was an issue? If you're throwing to the sideline, to stop the clock, you're eliminating a big chunk of your playbook. You're also allowing the other team to key in on this fact. How many of these plays started with a running clock, where the team was forced to rush to the line? How many of these plays were the last play of the game?
3.) Going back 20 years muddles the stats. Pass interference, targeting and personal fouls are all called at a higher rate in 2020 than in 2000. Thus, drawing a chain moving flag on 4th and 15 is easier in 2020 than 2000.
4.) Listing the QB's with the most conversations doesn't mean much. How many attempts did they have at this unique situation? What were the circumstances when they tried?
Bad teams may find themselves in more 4th and long situations simply because they're bad. These plays occur late in the game when you're losing. A QB like Tom Brady might not find himself facing too many 4th and 15's, whereas a QB like Jack Mioff from The Little Sisters of the Poor might.
If you don't think the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreke Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins has a greater chance of converting a 4th and 15 than Gardner Minshew, DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook and Tyler Eifert then pass me what you're smoking.
Teams with better QB's and better weapons have a better chance of conversion. Period. 20 year old stats, that you pulled from God knows where isn't convincing me otherwise.
