08-03-2020, 05:49 PM
(08-01-2020, 09:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: There have only been 40 teams make the Super Bowl since 2000. Seven out of 40 is 18%. So if you are going to make it to the Super Bowl there is almost a one-in-five (20%) chance that you are going to need your back up QB to win a game or two.
If you want to expand it to "make it to the playoffs" I could probably find a lot more.
Maybe you should stop using "monkey math".
I was admittedly using very sloppy, ill defined metrics. I was roughly going for backup QBs who had won "meaningful games" in "good seasons" since the year 2000(random starting point) based upon information that other posters had provided.
The point was to establish a general sense of how often a QB will come off of the bench to win "meaningful games."
I don't know if it's proper to simply list Super Bowl teams and to throw out the rest of the pool of backup QBs in the data set. SB teams play more games and undoubtedly have better rosters. Other factors include playing stiffer competition, playing in more intense games, older QBs generally, more incentive to take extreme risk more often, etc.
