How do Players retiring or being traded impact draft?

[Benton]

(01-20-2021, 01:51 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, I am a little sad that there's a chance we lose Sewell because we won a few games at the end of the year, but there is plenty of talent in this draft and if we do decide to trade back, we could land another first rounder next year without moving down all that much, or at the worst, another 2nd this year and one more pick in the 2nd or 3rd this year or next year. We could do a lot with those extra picks.

The only concern I have is that we don't get Sewell, and then we stick at #5 and either reach for a need or take a luxury like Chase. These aren't huge concerns, because we will improve even if we reach for an Olineman or take an elite WR like Chase. It would just feel like a bit of a missed opportunity is all.

Yeah, I just wish we were a little more flexible and creative when it came to drafting. If there's a trade out there, I'm not sure we take it given the track record 

(01-20-2021, 02:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Think you're overestimating the value of the #5 unless you're talking about trading WAY back.

The first 3 picks are WAY more valuable than the 5th. The value chart for the first 10 picks of the draft goes... 3000, 2600, 2200, 1800, 1700 (CIN), 1600, 1500, 1400, 1350, 1300. So the 1st pick (4 spots up) is worth 1300 more than the 5th pick, and the 9th pick (4 spots down) is worth only 350 less.

I worked this out in a different thread and basically.... the Bengals 1st, 5th, and 7th round picks for Cowboys 1st and 2nd round picks is roughly equal value, with the Bengals getting a tiny value advantage.

Barring some huge unlikely bidding war, there's not going to be the type of return you are listing.

Most years, I'd agree with you. But I think the need for quarterbacks is going to push some teams to trade up this year, or at least draft one earlier than planned. Not because there's a wealth of good ones, but so many holes and too few good free agent options. Maybe I'm just not big on a lot of the names expecting to hit free agency, but it seems like in most years there's more guys like a cam newton who can get you through a season or two while you develop a second day pick. 

There's a few teams in the same boat as the Bears and steelers. They've got a decent roster and no good qb option, but they're picking late because the team isn't bad. And yeah, I realize Ben is debatable as not a good option, but he turns 60 in July, so I don't think the organization is going to just hope for an exemption on him playing with a walker. Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised to see teams like those trading up. Maybe not to five, but that expectation may cause some teams to consider the fifth spot, especially if three qbs go in the first four picks.