04-23-2021, 02:34 PM
Obviously no minds are going to be changed here, but I want to get it all out of my system and try to enjoy the week leading up to the draft without spending the next week arguing. So here goes.
My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...
1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.
2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.
3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.
If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.
4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.
5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.
Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.
6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.
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I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.
I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.
I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:
5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/
My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...
1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.
2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.
3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.
If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.
4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.
5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.
Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.
6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.
---------------------
I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.
I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.
I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:
5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/
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