Mathematical estimates and simulation for the Bengals in 2021

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-08-2021, 04:28 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: According to the computer models and break down of the data it would seem to indicate that Vegas was spot on with the 6.5 win total.

Found an article on Cincyjungle and it didn't project a great win total for 2021 as it had a high water mark of 6.8 wins.

"Frelund, who NFL.com uses to take mathematical approaches to predicting outcomes, ran thousands of simulations of the 2021 season. According to NFL.com, Frelund ran “300,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 81,600,000 total games ‘played.’”

Unfortunately, these projections did not favor the Bengals. According to the simulations, the Bengals’ expected win total is 5.8, with a ceiling of 6.8 wins and a floor of 2.1.

Here’s what she said:

The Bengals have my model’s 28th-ranked offensive line. Not ideal. On the plus side, rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase forecasts to score at least seven receiving touchdowns in 57.0 percent of simulations, while Joe Burrow’s median passing projection (4,403 yards) has him netting the most throwing yards in the AFC North."


Can read it all here if you want.


https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/9/8/22660734/nfl-analytics-expert-projects-bengals-2021-season

I enjoy "watching" when she's on but i take it with a large grain of salt because her and their "models" can't account for rookie play, injuries, weather, bounce of the ball, etc, etc. It's predictions based on previous play. 

I came to that conclusion, solidly, when i started writing down her predictions and testing them after the games were played and unsurprisingly, they're were a bunch that were wrong. Good teams get predicted to win because they're good and have that track record, same for bad teams. 

I have about 0% faith in those kind of seasonal predictions. Game by game, they're a bit more accurate. Seasonal? Throw it right out the window.