11-05-2021, 12:25 PM
(11-05-2021, 07:55 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I always question when these announcers talk about how analytics determine the chances of winning based only on field position, down, and distance. The fact is it would be different for every single team. You can't decide if it is best to go for it on fourth and short at your own forty without knowing how well your team does at converting fourth and short. That is the big point everyone seems to be missing when all they cite is down, distance, and field position.
The chances of winning are based on a few more factors than just field position, down and distance. They can account for point differential, vegas line pre-game, weather, stadium type (dome, open etc.), time remaining and timeouts for both teams. As far as 4th down decisions, it is usually just calculating the likelihood of converting the 4th down based on historical NFL data and then figuring out the difference in win probability between a FG, punt or going for it. From there, you choose the option that gives you highest win percentage added.
A team's private analytics department would take this info and possibly insert that teams 4th down probabilities based on data they've gathered and decisions would be made from there.
