02-17-2022, 08:10 PM
(02-17-2022, 07:06 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Yea man. I did.
You said
“1) The article title implies a conflict will cause an increase in inflation. That's just not true. the article content (price of crude oil) is where the speculation actually is. Again, reference my OP for thoughts.”
Again the title of the article:
Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds
So you either think Russia vs Ukraine and nato will have zero effect on oil prices. Or oil prices have zero impact on inflation. Or both. Either way I disagree.
I guarantee if a war breaks out. You will pay more for oil and you will pay more for just about everything else.
I don’t see them trying to create new narrative. I see them acknowledging current inflation and saying it will get worse if there is a war.
Had I known I would've spent more time explaining how inflation works and less time talking about lame journalism, I probably wouldn't have posted this.
It's not a question of if oil prices go up. The entire study has a baseline of "What would happen to inflation if oil prices went up by 20 dollars"
So the study/article are implying:
1) The conflict will drive the price of oil up and sets a target of $110 for a baseline. (Not unreasonable and was never even a discussion point)
2) This $20 increase in crude oil will have a large enough impact on 31 different categories used to calculate the actual inflation rate (CPI) to increase the rate by 2.8% to a total of 10.3% (this is the shit i'm saying doesn't make sense)
For reference (since you're throwing out guarantees),
When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, Crude Oil went up roughly 32% and the CPI (inflation rate) increased by 0.6%
When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, Crude Oil went down by 9% and the CPI decreased by 0.2%
When the US invaded Iraq in 2003, Crude Oil went down by 16% and the CPI decreased by 0.8%
So in all your infinite wisdom, please explain to me why the following makes sense:
When Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, Crude Oil will go up 22% and the CPI will increase by 2.8%
It does not pass the smell test and can't be verified because the study is not published....and that's why I posted here. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm saying it's a very sensational claim to make without providing the actual analysis to support it.
I don't know how else to explain it.
