2024 Starting Rotation - Is It Good Enough?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-24-2023, 12:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I would argue Andrew Abbott is pitching well enough to be a #2.
Ashcraft since the ASB has been pitching well enough to be a #2/3 as well.
Greene prior to his injury was pitching well enough to be a #1-3.

Are any of these guys of the caliber of someone like Castillo? No, I don't think so (yet).

But do I think they might be able to be good enough to pitch in a postseason series as long as the bats weren't super cold?
Probably.

If the Reds can get someone like a Sonny Gray for a reasonable price, I'd love it, and I've stated something along those lines across multiple threads the past few months.
The Reds will have enough they can spend for a guy around the $10-15 mill range for the next 2-3 years, which should be able to bring in a quality #2/3.

I just don't think we have a true ace on the big league roster or in the minors right now, so the Reds might have to do some trading if they really wanna find the next potential ace.

Yes, I said you need 3 #2 types and Abbott is one of the 3. One needs to come externally so you're only relying on 1 more to show up internally rather than 2.

Ashcraft had a good August last year too with a 2.33 ERA, but he then went right back to stinking allowing 16 earned runs over his final 3 starts/12 innings to finish with a 4.89 ERA on the year. He is at 4.84 ERA this year. It was a small sample size, but he has a 1.670 WHIP in AAA. He's having a good stretch here right now, but he has had a couple good stretches over his career so far. They all get averaged out with terrible pitching that ends up with him having an ERA just shy of 5. He has allowed 9.6 hits per 9 in his career, doesn't strike guys out, and walks too many.

Greene has never pitched well enough to be a #1-#2. Before he went on the IL he had a 3.93 ERA which is pretty good, but was averaging less than 5.1 innings per start. He has walked too many guys at every level other than Rookie ball, and it's only gotten worse at every level. 3.0 BB/9 in A, 3.1 BB/9 in AA, 3.6 BB/9 in AAA, 3.7 BB/9 in MLB. He also just simply can't be relied upon to stay healthy.

- - - - - 

2023 Braves top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Spencer Strider: 3.57 ERA / 1.080 WHIP (124 ERA+)
Bryce Elder: 3.39 ERA / 1.200 WHIP (131 ERA+)
Charlie Morton: 3.37 ERA / 1.384 WHIP (132 ERA+)
Max Fried: 2.83 ERA / 1.196 WHIP (157 ERA+)

2023 Brewers top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Corbin Burnes: 3.65 ERA / 1.076 WHIP (118 ERA+)
Freddy Peralta: 3.97 ERA / 1.182 WHIP (108 ERA+)
Wade Miley: 3.18 ERA / 1.175 WHIP (135 ERA+)
Adrian Houser: 4.28 ERA / 1.460 WHIP (101 ERA+)

2023 Reds top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Graham Ashcraft: 4.84 ERA / 1.381 WHIP  (95 ERA+)
Brandon Williamson: 4.47 ERA / 1.258 WHIP (103 ERA+)
Andrew Abbott: 3.16 ERA / 1.172 WHIP (146 ERA+)
Hunter Greene: 4.72 ERA / 1.467 WHIP (98 ERA+)


We're notably different than the Brewers, let alone the team we'll need to get past to go to a WS in the Braves.

When your team has the 28th best Starting Pitching ERA in baseball and 28th best Starting Pitching WHIP in baseball... you simply don't already have 3 guys who are #1s-#3s.