12-11-2023, 09:23 PM
(12-11-2023, 07:41 PM)motoarch Wrote: 10-7 will probably not get us in.
People keep saying this without looking at the other teams schedules and understanding we have almost no tie breaking winning scenarios.
Yes it could get us in but we need a lot of things to fall out way on top of going 3-1 from here out.
According to this site we have a 29% chance. Which is actually not too bad all things considered but it's going to be tough.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html
While the tiebreakers aren't generally in our favour, people are only looking at conference record when they say that. We're forgetting we have H2H wins over 3 of the teams currently in this mix.
We want the Texans to win the AFC South. That removes that bad tiebreaker. I think the Texans are quite likely to have the division lead after next week.
Cleveland... tbh forget about them, I think they're going to be in.
Pittsburgh... well if we go 10-7, it's likely in part due to winning in PIT. If we win there, I doubt the Steelers go 3-0 against the Colts/Seahawks/Ravens. Not impossible, but I think if we beat them, 10-7 would finish above them.
Indy... I just don't think are that good, and won't get to 10 wins.
Houston... I think they might be trouble for us if they don't win their division.
Denver are certainly a potential party pooper for us.
Buffalo... if we get to 10-7, they'd need to win out to have a better record. They won't win out imo.
I know H2H isn't the only thing in play, but honestly I think if we get to 10-7 the teams most likely there at 10-7 too are the Jags/Bills... both of whom we beat. The major caveat is Denver, who seem to be rolling.
