Toxic differential rankings

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-26-2016, 09:25 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Like I said in my original post (talking about 20+ yard run plays)...Here is his career runs of 20+ yards...I think it is quite obvious that he is more likely to have a big gain when not in shotgun and the QB under center....

Runs over 20 yards..2014

Jaguars
60 yds…not in Shotgun
Saints
21 yds…not in shotgun
62 yds…not in shotgun
Browns
21 yds…not in shotgun
Denver
85 yds..shotgun
Steelers
22 yds…not in shotgun
2015..Ravens…only run over 20 yds
38 yds…not in shotgun
 
And if you go scroll through the play by play you will pick up obvious tendencies of when we are in shotgun and when Hill is in versus Bernard...Again, I am not saying that Hill is not effective in shotgun just his big plays come when not...

Even if we say all of those shotgun/not shotguns are right. Where does that leave you?

1 in 116 chance for 20+ out of the shotgun.
vs
6 in 329 chance for 20+ not in shotgun.

Which seems like a pretty easy answer that shotgun is worse, except for the fact that the other 54 or so carries in between 20+ yard runs not in the shotgun, he's only gaining 3.4 yards per carry. Who would you rather have?

RB #1: Gets 115 carries at 4.4 YPC, then gets a 20+ yard run, repeat.
RB #2: Gets 54 carries at 3.4 YPC, then gets a 20+ yard run, repeat.

Having Hill run with the QB under center is actually worse for both him and the offense. Maybe it might give him more long highlight runs, but in the meantime, for every single long run he's had, he's also had 54 crap runs. Give me a guy who can churn out steady yards every time. Not to mention the guy who can churn out steady yards every time also is better for the QB.

So while it might help your toxic differential thing, it wouldn't help your offense, your quarterback, or your running back.