02-11-2016, 02:18 AM
Though milksheikh poses a good question about trading up, what about trading down? I'll throw the disclaimer out there: I know it comes down to making the best deal, not necessarily dealing up or down or having an extreme style like Jimmy Johnson or a Mike Ditka type gamble.
As deep as this roster is, when you look at the positons you find yourself saying "boy they could really use an early pick at this position" It's a reasonable bet that they sign about half of their own FA's and don't sign any big FA's. I think they'll end up with a few descent vets, but as great as this roster is it's going through a sort of transition. Just look at the DL as an example. They have the same starters they had 5 years ago and they play a rotation. They whiffed on Still, Thompson couldn't crack the dressed list and Hunt to date looks too raw to contribute. They proactively drafted Clarke and Hardison, but as promising as they are...it's possible they could draft another DL early, especially if they let Gilberry go. So most of us agree they'll at least take a NT by the mid rounds if not first, but what if there is a DE or speed rusher BPA that's too hard to pass up?
I'm not saying they'll lose so many FA's that they'll need to make a move to land an extra starter early, but it's not like they're so deep anymore that they'll be cutting mid round guys if they add too many picks. Take these other positions into account as well:
Corner: Even if they keep Pacman, Dennard is coming off an injury and Shaw is possibly a tweener. The league is leaning pass and I don't want the injuries to pile up again, they'll need to have another solid corner that can play outside. Long term a descent rookie corner is a benefit as a "big money" position. You don't want to be weak at the position when you're negotiating a long term deal with Dre, looking on the FA market or trying to figure out what you actually have if you have more injuries. Drafting a corner looks more like a need as time goes on.
Linebacker: Burfict is out 3 games and no matter our opinion still a wildcard week to week. He could make big plays to win a game or flag or knock himself out of a week or two. Rey M is a solid 2 down LB, Dawson is a personal favorite but untested, Hawk and Flowers are back of the rotation guys ideally. Even if you think they need to reload at the back or front 4 positions first, they could stand to add another LB early that can make an impact.
Safety: If one of them stays, Williams is coming along at safety but I'd still feel more comfortable with another body there if he struggles in coverage, or just as insurance. Smith looks good at times, but he has to bring his A game weekly to overcome his height disadvantage. I just shudder when thinking about TE's roaming the middle if they don't add young talent at LB and S really.
Guard/Center: I see one pop up in a lot of mocks, and don't blame you for doing so. I haven't given up on Bodine, but you need competition/insurance. Throw in the fact that Zeitler is due a big deal that Cincy may not pay, sure they hedged their bets with the 2 early OL picks but you need another solid body inside at some point and may be tempted to take one early if they're available.
Wide Receiver: We know the drill, they're likely going to need one early. Just like corner, the longer you wait to draft one the longer you'll wait to groom one. You don't want to have to depend on a rookie pick to start opposite AJ, but if he happens to beat out Sanu or a vet (if you lose Jones) then so bet it.
Even if the plan isn't to trade down, looking at these factors starts to tip the scale. Especially if you get extra value from a team wanting to leap the Steelers for a DB, Seattle for a OT, GB for a DL, ect... Also consider Cincy draft board could have a lot of similar players around 24. If they have say Reed, Nkemdiche, Clark ranked very close they could justify sliding down say 5 or 6 slots and still getting one of them while adding a free player in the 3rd round with them. It doesn't have to be all the same position, just an example. So it's not so much that Cincy needs to trade down to get extra picks but the class and positions they'll be looking at could dictate making the move.
As deep as this roster is, when you look at the positons you find yourself saying "boy they could really use an early pick at this position" It's a reasonable bet that they sign about half of their own FA's and don't sign any big FA's. I think they'll end up with a few descent vets, but as great as this roster is it's going through a sort of transition. Just look at the DL as an example. They have the same starters they had 5 years ago and they play a rotation. They whiffed on Still, Thompson couldn't crack the dressed list and Hunt to date looks too raw to contribute. They proactively drafted Clarke and Hardison, but as promising as they are...it's possible they could draft another DL early, especially if they let Gilberry go. So most of us agree they'll at least take a NT by the mid rounds if not first, but what if there is a DE or speed rusher BPA that's too hard to pass up?
I'm not saying they'll lose so many FA's that they'll need to make a move to land an extra starter early, but it's not like they're so deep anymore that they'll be cutting mid round guys if they add too many picks. Take these other positions into account as well:
Corner: Even if they keep Pacman, Dennard is coming off an injury and Shaw is possibly a tweener. The league is leaning pass and I don't want the injuries to pile up again, they'll need to have another solid corner that can play outside. Long term a descent rookie corner is a benefit as a "big money" position. You don't want to be weak at the position when you're negotiating a long term deal with Dre, looking on the FA market or trying to figure out what you actually have if you have more injuries. Drafting a corner looks more like a need as time goes on.
Linebacker: Burfict is out 3 games and no matter our opinion still a wildcard week to week. He could make big plays to win a game or flag or knock himself out of a week or two. Rey M is a solid 2 down LB, Dawson is a personal favorite but untested, Hawk and Flowers are back of the rotation guys ideally. Even if you think they need to reload at the back or front 4 positions first, they could stand to add another LB early that can make an impact.
Safety: If one of them stays, Williams is coming along at safety but I'd still feel more comfortable with another body there if he struggles in coverage, or just as insurance. Smith looks good at times, but he has to bring his A game weekly to overcome his height disadvantage. I just shudder when thinking about TE's roaming the middle if they don't add young talent at LB and S really.
Guard/Center: I see one pop up in a lot of mocks, and don't blame you for doing so. I haven't given up on Bodine, but you need competition/insurance. Throw in the fact that Zeitler is due a big deal that Cincy may not pay, sure they hedged their bets with the 2 early OL picks but you need another solid body inside at some point and may be tempted to take one early if they're available.
Wide Receiver: We know the drill, they're likely going to need one early. Just like corner, the longer you wait to draft one the longer you'll wait to groom one. You don't want to have to depend on a rookie pick to start opposite AJ, but if he happens to beat out Sanu or a vet (if you lose Jones) then so bet it.
Even if the plan isn't to trade down, looking at these factors starts to tip the scale. Especially if you get extra value from a team wanting to leap the Steelers for a DB, Seattle for a OT, GB for a DL, ect... Also consider Cincy draft board could have a lot of similar players around 24. If they have say Reed, Nkemdiche, Clark ranked very close they could justify sliding down say 5 or 6 slots and still getting one of them while adding a free player in the 3rd round with them. It doesn't have to be all the same position, just an example. So it's not so much that Cincy needs to trade down to get extra picks but the class and positions they'll be looking at could dictate making the move.
