Looking ahead to 2017 draft

[leonardfan40]

(05-03-2016, 02:57 PM)WrongVerb Wrote: This is my thinking: the Bengals got a 3rd and 4th for losing Johnson and Collins a couple years ago. Collins wasn't even a starter until he left. That's similar to losing M.Jones and Smith this past season, except Smith is a starter. Right there I expect 2 3rd round comp picks. Sanu will probably be a 4th rounder if he starts and produces for ATL. Reggie Nelson is going from starting for CIN to starting for OAK. That should bring another 4th rounder or maybe a 3rd.

It doesn't work quite that way. The initial process involves ranking players gained and players lost via FA. Highest paid players (average annual value) gained cancel out highest lost. We didn't sign any this offseason that i can think of (players cut don't count), so that part can be ignored. A team can have a maximum of 4 comp picks, and no more than one in the 3rd round. 

Then they are ranked against the rest of the league. Something like the highest paid 5% qualify for 3rd rounders. This means guys that get paid like Osweiler, Norman, etc will earn 3rd rounders. None of our players signed for more than about $8 mil/yr so that means a 3rd is far fetched. Playing time and postseason honors also factor in, but not nearly as much as pay and total players signed/lost. Sanu will be our 2nd highest pick at about $6.5mil/yr (not smith) because of the salary, then Reggie about $4.25 mil/yr, and Smith $3.5 mil/yr. Lamur would be next but that would put us over 4 picks. 

Edit:

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

here is a link, if you scroll down to the bengals they also have our players listed for rounds 4-7. They also have Gilberry who I forgot about, but he won't get us one either.