I Miss Marvin Jones.

[Shake n Blake]

(11-25-2017, 08:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 1. Come on Shake, you and I both know that's a weaksauce criteria for being a #1 right there.

Heck, RB Duke Johnson is leading the Browns this year in both catches and yards receiving. Andrew Hawkins led the Browns in both catches and yards in 2014. Jeremy Kerley led the 2016 49ers in catches and yards. That doesn't make them a #1 WR. Lol

Torrey Smith has led his teams in catches 1 time, yards 1 time, and touchdowns 4 times.
Julian Edelman has led his teams in catches 3 times, yards 2 times, and touchdowns 1 time.

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2. I don't know, man. That Fuller sample size is just too small. Reminds me of when Sanu had that 3 game/4 TD streak his rookie season in limited play and people were saying "oh man, if he gets to play a whole season, he's going to score like 15 TDs!"

It's possible Fuller really has it, but I am not going to anoint the guy until it happens. Too much of that going around already, especially with young QBs. "The Sanchize", Luck being a HoFer before he ever took a snap, Kapernick being the next Montana, Newton/RG3 revolutionizing how the QB position would be played, etc.

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Except Amari Cooper will be paid big money this offseason. He wasn't allowed to get a contract extension/raise yet due to the CBA. Gotta put in those three years on the rookie contract first.

3. Also....
Baldwin (7th season): 424 catches/5,627 yards (13.3 AVG)/40 TDs ... (averaged out per year)  65 catches/866 yards/6 TDs
Maclin (9th season): 505 catches/6,739 yards (13.3 AVG)/49 TDs ... (averaged out per year)  59 catches/793 yards/6 TDs
Green (7th season): 529 catches/7,878 yards (14.9 AVG)/55 TDs ... (averaged out per year)  81 catches/1,212 yards/8.5 TDs
J. Jones (7th season): 551 catches/8,396 yards (15.2 AVG)/41 TDs ... (averaged out per year)   85 catches/1,292 yards/6.5 TDs
(*on the averages, I just counted this year as a .5 for simplicity)

You take a HUGE quality hit if you actually think you'd prefer a Maclin or Baldwin than a Green or Jones, just because of the money. There's a reason they make more. They're basically 50% better/more productive than them.

If you took Baldwin over Julio, you'd lose out on 20 catches/426 yards/0.5 TDs of surplus production each year.
If you took Maclin over Green, you'd lose out on 22 catches/419 yards/2.5 TDs of surplus production each year.


Having a good #2 like them as your #1 is basically like giving up a whole extra #3 or #4 deep threat WR's year worth of free production. That is most certainly not an insignificant amount.

1. If it was weak sauce, I wouldn't say it. Wake me when Duke Johnson or Andrew Hawkins have led their teams in multiple categories over multiple seasons. Weak sauce is comparing a guy who has done it once, to guys who have done it a bunch of times. 

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2. Fair enough. I wouldn't blame anyone for not being sold. I like what I saw though, and he was a far better prospect coming out than a Marvin Jones (who had one big game, rather than a string of 4). Fuller missed the first few games of the season, then lit it up in all 4 games he played with Watson. Now that he has a terrible QB, he (and everyone else) is predictably disappearing. I think his string of games was a bit less fluky than Jones and his 4 TD, 1 game explosion.

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3. Baldwin is not the receiver now that he was early in his career. You know that drags his averages down. Baldwin is working on his 3rd consecutive 1000 yard season with 28 TDs over that span. Also, it seems you did Baldwin's average season by taking his career totals, dividing them into his total games played, then averaging it out to 16 games. I prefer that method myself (it's more accurate), but...it seems you used a different method for Maclin, Green and Julio. 

Maclin's actual averages per 16 games played is: 73 catches/980 yards/7 TDs (I don't know many #2's that put up these numbers regularly)
Green's is 88 catches/1313 yards/9 TDs
Julio's is 99 catches/1509 yards/7 TDs

Now the mistake you make here is assuming this production would just "disappear". We wouldn't just lose 15 catches, 333 yards and 2 TD's by swapping Green for Maclin. Green has averaged 30 more targets (per 16 games) than Maclin. Those targets would go somewhere. Now I'm about to make a controversial statement. Not only do I wonder if this team would be better off without Green's monstrous contract, I also wonder if the offense wouldn't be better off spreading the ball around more. 

Green does command a lot of attention, but it's not as if WRs like Maclin get ignored. Green has a tendency to disappear at times, and when he does, I can't help but wonder if we'd be better off with a less expensive WR so we could shore up the line or a different area. Of course, this is the Bengals I'm talking about, and we wouldn't have to ponder such things if they'd just spend to cap.

Fwiw, I'd be interested to know some guys you consider to be a #1 but below Green and Julio.