Contract status of our o-line

[*ochocincos*]

(02-21-2018, 01:12 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Actually, recent history says that tackles picked in the top 1/3(ish) isn't as hopeful as you'd think it is. It's still a safer bet than most picks, but it's still pretty spotty.


In the past 10 years, there have been five tackles chosen either first or second overall. Above-average starting tackles today among those five: zero. Jake Long (2008) is a backup in Atlanta now after two major knee surgeries. Jason Smith (2009) failed with the Rams, in part because of a severe concussion, and is out of football. Eric Fisher (2013) is improving, but was Pro Football Focus’ 39th-rated tackle last year; Luke Joeckel (2013) continued to struggle in Jacksonville and was rated 52nd. Greg Robinson of the Rams (2014) was 73rd of PFF’s 76 rated tackles last fall.



Of the 17 tackles picked in the top 10 since 2005, only three were ever first-team all-pro. Obviously only one left tackle per year can be named first-team all-pro, but only four of the 17 ranked in PFF’s top 20 of tackles for the 2015 season play isn't a slam dunk.

I get that fewer and fewer OTs in the draft are panning out, but the likelihood of finding an actual good one gets lower and lower as each round goes by based on probability of remaining OTs to select from.