AD better deep ball than u think

[Shake n Blake]

(04-08-2018, 02:30 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: 1. If his numbers are above average it is because of two factors: one AJ green is making acrobatic catches on bad balls that are overthrown or under thrown, 2. and two he is throwing way less deep balls than someone like big ben. This would indicate he only throws a deep ball if someone is wide open and doesn't fit it into a tight window. 

3. Now I watch the games, and I see AJ making a lot of circus catches on badly thrown deep balls, so I would believe, based on observations, AJ is bailing out Dalton, and that is why his numbers are that high. If Dalton didn't have AJ his deep ball numbers would plummet. 

4. Now one stat given show good deep ball numbers, and the other one, provided by pdub ,show not good numbers. Which numbers are to believed would be open for debate. I personally would believe the more detailed analysis given by pdub, than the other set of numbers that were shown. 

5. Now I'm not going to allow you Dalton defenders to manipulate stats and argue that he's good at throwing the deep ball when my observations , and I watch a lot of games, show AJ is the one whose bailing out Dalton, and artificially propping up his numbers on deep balls. I will admit nothing because I 100% believe in my observations and stand by them.

1. This is a subjective statement that is impossible to prove either way. I will say that if you think other QB's aren't getting "bailed out" on deep throws, you must not watch other teams very closely.

2. Dalton has thrown 31+ yards on 4.28% of all attempts. Ben on 5.77% of all attempts. Brady on 3.47%. These differences are negligible though. Over the course of 500 attempts, this would equate to a grand total of 7 more deep throws by Ben. This is not a big enough discrepancy to indicate anything, and saying that it indicates that Dalton "only throws when someone is wide open" is kinda wild and baseless.

I could easily respond by saying that maybe Dalton is a bit more selective on his deep throws, and that would explain why Dalton has more success on slightly fewer attempts. I won't say that though, because there's not enough evidence to make a claim either way.

3. I see some circus catches. I see times where Dalton throws an absolute dime. I see times where Dalton made a good choice and it was a little behind or ahead and still caught. I see times (especially last year) where Dalton threw it too far out of bounds. I see the exact same things when I watch other QB's throw deep. These things aren't exclusive to Dalton. 

The numbers show Dalton is more successful more often than most. And again, the year that AJ Green missed essentially half the season, Dalton did just fine on deep throws.

4. I'm not surprised you would pick the stats that support your take. I don't know what Pdub's links really show, though.

5. What stats did I manipulate?