AD better deep ball than u think

[fredtoast]

(04-08-2018, 07:44 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Another thing to keep in mind, is how accurately the qb rating system ranks a qb on deep throws. I could argue it isn't that accurate at all.

For example, a qb throws a deep ball at his 50 yard line for a TD.

Another throws it at his 40 yard, and the ball is spotted at 10 yard line. A couple plays later that team scores a TD

The first qb gets a much higher rating, even though they both completed a 50 yard throw, simply because his scored a TD and the other QB's throw didn't score a TD.

So the rating system on deep throws is highly dependent not only on accuracy, but where the ball was thrown. A QB shouldn't be penalized because he throws the ball further away from the end zone. That is a bias built into the QB ratings calculation

For example, in 2017 Dalton completed 3 of 16 throws between 31- 40 yards with 2 TD's. He had a QB rating of 106. Now that seems artificially inflated because two throws were within 40 yards of the end zone which scored a TD.

It can work the other way also.  A guy can complete a pass that goes for a 40 yard td that would have actually gone for 90 yards if the end zone had not cut it short.  Another guy throws a 40 yards td that would not have gone for more than forty yards because the receiver had to dive for it.  First guy throws a better pass but they get the exact same credit.

Also there are situations where the defense will allow a deep completion as long as it is not a td.  In those cases a QB should get a lot more credit for throwing a td than a pass stopped at the 5 yard line.