04-09-2018, 10:31 AM
(04-08-2018, 06:36 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: As far as subjectivity, you can argue that all day long if you think green isn't a great deep threat, if not the absolute best deep threat in the league. I, like most people believe, think green is the best deep threat, and best at making adjustment on deep throws as any wide receiver in the league. I like about 95% of the league coaches fans and media would say that's a true statement.
How is getting the most separation subjective. You watch every game and watch how much separation is between him and the defensive back whose covering him. Do it for every deep throw and calculate it. There is nothing subjective about it.
Like I have stated, and continue to state, comparing Brady without such a deep threat on the team is not a fair comparison.
I have stated that a fair comparison would be when he had Moss as a deep threat and in that year he rated 92 between 31 - 40 yards and 128 on throws over 40 yards. He threw 8 TDs and 2 Ints.
He threw 13 passes between 31 - 40 and 17 passes over 40. This would make his average rating on throws over 30 yards. 13/30 x 92 + 17 /30 X 128 / 2 . This gives him an average rating on throws over 30 yards at 112 .
When I say manipulate the data, it means you do not and still haven provided the details I asked for. You also made a comparison between Dalton and Brady, when Brady didn't have a serious deep threat like Green . This is why I used his deep ball numbers during the year he had Moss as a wide receiver. This also isn't completely fair, considering Moss was 30 and past his prime, and Green has been in his 20's for the first 7 years of Dalton's career.It's close enough that a fair evaluation can be made.
Pdubs link shows a B rating once and C ratings multiple times. That means hes averaged around a C . C + C + C + C + B which is slightly higher than a C. The guy doing the analysis makes the statement, that of all the years hes rated Dalton, he only gave him a B once, and every other time he gave him a C
As far as Big Ben throwing 37% more deep throws. Its simple calculations. I took the numbers you gave me. 5.8/4.2 which is 1.37. That means 37% more deep throws.
The numbers I got are straight from espn. I corrected some of the calculations because I did them fast. His average for throws 31 - 40 is 94 . His average for throws over 40 is 100. Now he made many more throws between 31 - 40 than over 40. So his average would be closer to 94 than 100.
2017
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 106.0
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 61.8
2016
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 115.3
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 135.4
2015
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 54.7
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 81.9
2014
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 111.9
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 95.8
2013
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 91.5
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 153.3
2012
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 92.0
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 79.2
2011
Pass Thrown 31-40 yds 86.6
Pass Thrown 41+ yds 95.8
Why would you average those numbers out?
I compiled all the stats and threw them in the QB rating calculator: https://brucey.net/nflab/statistics/qb_rating.html
I think most would say that this is more accurate than averaging his QB ratings. On throws over 31 yards since 2011, Dalton has a 101.7 rating. Not a 94 or 90.
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