Geoff Hobson is an idiot

[Daddy-O]

(04-15-2018, 09:00 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I would agree with Hobson's premise here. Why? ....

I study the draft like crazy as it's my favorite sporting event of the year. In my opinion, generally speaking, in this draft the Bengals will be getting a similarly graded/talented player at their pick #77 overall (3rd round #13) as they would have been getting at 12. To give up what they would have to give up to move up from 21 they would be idiots, unless it was to get into the top 6 or 7. And,even then, I'm still not sure that would be worth it.

They would be better served, IMO, trading out of the first to get more 3rd or 2nds or even a 3rd and a 4th depending on where those picks are in the rounds. The differences between guy number 21 and 100 (for example), is next to zero. They're going to be the same guy.

Some examples...

- D'Ron Payne is the highest rated DT at 6.51. Derrick Nnadi is the 7th rated DT at 5.74. That's .77 of a rating difference. However, in this draft, Payne will go in the 1st while Nnadi I would bet the 4th or 5th. End of the 3rd would be a dream for him.

- The highest rated S is Derwin James at 6.44. 7 spots back is Armani Watts at 5.73. A .71 difference. Watts should be a 4th or 5th rounder.

- Highest rated C is Daniels at a 6.03. Only a .51 difference between him and the 6th rated C, Quessenberry at 5.52.

- Highest rated OT is McGlinchey @ 5.95. But at 5.71 (.24 of a point) is the 7th highest rated OT, Brian O'Neill. Why trade UP for that little a difference?

^ The #1 C in last year's draft, BTW, was Elflein and he went #70 overall to the Vikings in round 3.

I'm just saying, the round isn't that big of a deal. It's the talent level that matters.

Thanks for taking the time to break that down PDub80.  I like the draft but don't follow that closely so the extra effort is greatly appreciated.

Shows the type of value you can get in the later rounds and why there is no need to reach early.  There are only a handful of blue chippers and the Bengals are much better served to get multiple quality picks that fill the areas of need.  They generally do very well in the mid rounds so I'm exited to see what the draft brings for 2018.