05-17-2019, 11:50 AM
For a team like the Bengals that gets 87% of its starters from the draft, it needs two upgrade starters at a minimum from each draft for the team to improve.
If the team's first round pick becomes a starter, but is a down grade, then the team didn't improve and got worse. You cannot build through the draft with picks like that.
Just consider these stats:
A. On defense the only starter the team didn't draft is Preston Brown.
B. On offense the only starters the team didn't draft are Cordy Glenn (trade) and Miller (assuming Miller actually starts). The only reason the team traded for Glenn was because they whiffed so badly on OL draft picks. Both Glenn and Miller are down grades from the regulars they ultimately replaced (Whitworth and Zietler).
C. 19 drafted starters out of 22 starting players is ~87%.
D. This is how many starting players you need to draft each year to turn over the roster.
i. To turn over a roster in 6 years you would need 19/6 = 3.2 new starters from each draft over that 6 years.
ii. To turn over a roster in 7 years you would need 19/7 = 2.7 new starters from each draft over that 7 years.
iii. To turn over a roster in 8 years you would need 19/8 = 2.4 new starters from each draft over that 8 years.
This is assuming only the regular starting players, not part time starters due to injury.
The Bengals start these players from the draft whether or not they are an upgrade to the last guy if the last guy is gone simply because they have to start someone. They drafted Ogbuehi and even though the team knew full well that he wasn't getting it done they trotted him out there because they had no one else.
In addition the team is often behind the curve. Marvin Jones left after the 2015 season and his production wasn't replaced until last year with Boyd, 2018. That was 2 years of down grade at a position.
Mixon was a great pick in that he was an immediate upgrade to Hill and Bernard, and Mixon is a 3 down back you don't need to take off the field, except to rest him. There is really no need to go to a 3rd down back with Mixon as he can run routes and catch as well as any other back on the field and even better than a number of our WRs, who specialize in that.
To grade the draft we really should be looking at the number of upgraded starters, the number of down graded starters, non-starters and off-the-roster guys the team gets from it, as the Bengals will be starting guys, even if they suck. You can't grade a draft this way until you are a couple of years in though. It takes a couple of years.
If the team's first round pick becomes a starter, but is a down grade, then the team didn't improve and got worse. You cannot build through the draft with picks like that.
Just consider these stats:
A. On defense the only starter the team didn't draft is Preston Brown.
B. On offense the only starters the team didn't draft are Cordy Glenn (trade) and Miller (assuming Miller actually starts). The only reason the team traded for Glenn was because they whiffed so badly on OL draft picks. Both Glenn and Miller are down grades from the regulars they ultimately replaced (Whitworth and Zietler).
C. 19 drafted starters out of 22 starting players is ~87%.
D. This is how many starting players you need to draft each year to turn over the roster.
i. To turn over a roster in 6 years you would need 19/6 = 3.2 new starters from each draft over that 6 years.
ii. To turn over a roster in 7 years you would need 19/7 = 2.7 new starters from each draft over that 7 years.
iii. To turn over a roster in 8 years you would need 19/8 = 2.4 new starters from each draft over that 8 years.
This is assuming only the regular starting players, not part time starters due to injury.
The Bengals start these players from the draft whether or not they are an upgrade to the last guy if the last guy is gone simply because they have to start someone. They drafted Ogbuehi and even though the team knew full well that he wasn't getting it done they trotted him out there because they had no one else.
In addition the team is often behind the curve. Marvin Jones left after the 2015 season and his production wasn't replaced until last year with Boyd, 2018. That was 2 years of down grade at a position.
Mixon was a great pick in that he was an immediate upgrade to Hill and Bernard, and Mixon is a 3 down back you don't need to take off the field, except to rest him. There is really no need to go to a 3rd down back with Mixon as he can run routes and catch as well as any other back on the field and even better than a number of our WRs, who specialize in that.
To grade the draft we really should be looking at the number of upgraded starters, the number of down graded starters, non-starters and off-the-roster guys the team gets from it, as the Bengals will be starting guys, even if they suck. You can't grade a draft this way until you are a couple of years in though. It takes a couple of years.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
